The resignation Wednesday of coalition chairwoman MK Idit Silman (Yamina) raises questions about the future of the government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Will it survive? Is Israel on the brink of another election, or will a different government be formed? As of Wednesday, there are a few possible scenarios.
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Silman's departure is the beginning of the end. It won't happen tomorrow, or the day after, but Silman started an avalanche that could wind up crushing the current government. Ways of dismantling the government of Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid include a constructive no-confidence vote, in which the Opposition would recruit 61 votes to bring down the Bennett-Lapid government and set up an alternative one headed by a consensus candidate.
While this would appear to be an easy and immediate course of action, the Likud is not rushing to adopt it because it will be difficult for the Likud to propose a candidate from its own ranks that the Joint Arab List would agree to back. Meanwhile, the Opposition is still short one more resignation by a coalition member. Therefore, the Likud would prefer an election. A regular majority is sufficient to dissolve the Knesset.
Another possibility would be that the government announces it will dismantle itself. The government can propose a bill to dissolve the Knesset even during a recess. This, too, is an unlikely scenario.
According to coalition agreements in place, if a member of Bennett's bloc (from Yamina or New Hope) causes the government to break up, the scheduled rotation will still take place and Lapid will serve as interim prime minister during the transition period.
Thus far, the coalition has found it difficult to function with 61 members. Legislation has failed to pass. Ultimata from Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Ra'am have paralyzed the coalition. Now that the coalition has narrowed to only 60 members, it will find it nearly impossible to accomplish anything. "Simple" laws can be passed with 60 votes, but important laws that require a minimum of 61 votes will not, and Israel will find itself stalled. The Joint Arab List is saying that it wants to dissolve the Knesset and will do everything they can to make sure that Ra'am does not benefit from it.
For the five weeks the Knesset is on recess, the government can function. After the recess is over, that will likely be impossible. Elections aren't far off.
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