Against the backdrop of renewed efforts by the Biden administration to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Israel Hayom's reporting indicates that a breakthrough in relations is unlikely to occur in the coming months and almost certainly not this year.
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The conventional wisdom among Israeli policymakers is that the thaw in relations is only in its initial state and that a full-fledged agreement on having the two sides normalize their relations will take at least several months and perhaps even a year if it culminates in a successful outcome.
One of the main stumbling blocks in any potential breakthrough is the categoric objection Israel will likely raise to the Saudi request to get a green light from Washington over a civilian nuclear program. A diplomatic source told Israel Hayom that has long opposed the idea of any Middle Eastern actor having nuclear capabilities. Riyadh has recently included this request as part of its set of conditions that have to be met before it moves to normalize ties with Jerusalem.
Officials in Jerusalem have stressed that regardless of Israel's stance, the chances of a breakthrough hinge more on President Joe Biden's willingness to pivot away from his current policy toward the kingdom, which has seen relations reach a low point. The US has so far refused to change its posture toward the de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, whom Biden has accused of being behind the assassination of American resident and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi.
Israeli policymakers hope that even without a diplomatic opening with Saudi Arabia, the kingdom would still continue with its balancing act: Having recently agreed to let China broker an agreement with Iran, it might decide to bolster its relations with Washington in order to maintain its good standing with the other major world power.
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