It is difficult to guess who sounded more excited Wednesday about the progress towards the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or US President Joe Biden.
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Netanyahu presented peace with the Palestinians as mere lip service to fulfill his obligation to the US. Of course, the United States once again voiced its commitment to Israel's democratic values. The American side registered no reprimand; the hug was heartfelt.
Video: Saudi crown prince says getting 'closer' to Israel normalization -Fox interview / Credit: Reuters
Except for the fact that Biden did not receive Netanyahu at the White House, this meeting, after nine months since the current Israeli government was formed, could be the realization of Netanyahu's dreams, who well remembers how meetings looked like during the administration of the previous US President, Barack Obama.
A normalization agreement will have three partners: Netanyahu and Israel, Biden and the US, and Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia. The interests of the Americans and the Saudi Arabians are much bigger than those of the Israelis, despite Israel being on the verge of integration into the Middle East. Biden is determined to halt the emerging alliance between Saudi Arabia, China, and Iran, and he also needs a significant international achievement, given his declining poll numbers. Bin Salman hopes for two significant achievements for the future of his country: a NATO-style defense alliance with the US and a civilian nuclear reactor on Saudi soil.
The window of opportunity is open until spring, so the pressure is mounting on the US and Saudi Arabia to sign the agreement before the US elections will dictate an agenda that will be impossible to receive consensus by the parties. To get there, both sides need to overcome three significant obstacles: the Saudi request for a nuclear reactor with enrichment capabilities; the demand for a defense treaty that can only pass in the Senate with Republican support and Israel being the vital middleman; and the third, Israeli, obstacle: the series of gestures to the Palestinians.
The nuclear issue will require a creative solution in the version of close American supervision on Saudi soil to ensure that the Saudis will not use the nuclear reactor for military purposes. It should be noted that the alternative is more threatening – a nuclear reactor without supervision courtesy of the Chinese, who are seeking a foothold in the region. The defense alliance issue will be addressed by enlisting Netanyahu as the agreement's number-one lobbyist with the Republicans. Netanyahu's political reward is obvious – more normalization agreements in the future that will promise Israel's integration into the region.
Despite Netanyahu's enthusiastic words about "peace with the Palestinians", the "fully right-wing leader" knows he has no coalition leeway for even one significant gesture to the Palestinians. His partner, Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionist Party, made this clear to him before his flight took off. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir does so more frequently and publicly, but more importantly – Netanyahu recognizes the limitations at home: his Likud party members will not allow him to execute significant diplomatic moves with the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu's hands are tied. Without the government, there is no agreement with Saudi Arabia, which is clear to everyone. The assessment in Israel is that the Saudis will demand symbolic gestures, while the real concern is about the steps the Democratic administration will insist on in the agreement, as Biden already clearly stated in the UN General Assembly. A former senior figure in Netanyahu's circle told me: "If I were advising him right now, I would tell him not to be the first to blink."
Will the Palestinians be an obstacle to the normalization and the Saudi agreement that Biden and bin Salman aspire to? This will ultimately be the United States' decision.
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