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Home Analysis

Israel's crucial weeks lie ahead

The new year provides an opportunity for the entire region. The Iranian people, who have not forgotten the hijab protests, may attempt to reignite demonstrations if they believe Western nations will support their efforts this time.

by  Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Dedi Simhi
Published on  10-01-2024 01:59
Last modified: 10-04-2024 22:05
Defense chief tells troops 'we will use all our capabilities'Shahar Yurman

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets with troops in northern Israel, Sept. 30, 2024 | Photo: Shahar Yurman

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As Israel enters the Hebrew year 5785, the nation finds itself at a pivotal moment, marked by historic achievements and dramatic strategic shifts. The country has executed a groundbreaking elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, launched significant airstrikes on Lebanon and Yemen, and demonstrated a remarkable change in trajectory during the longest war in the young state's history.

The previous year, 5784, began with the greatest catastrophe since the establishment of the Jewish state. It was a national disaster, a merciless massacre of Israeli civilians, and an unforgivable military and political failure. On a personal level, it was a family tragedy in which my son Guy, a fighter in the Paratroopers Reconnaissance Unit, was killed while fighting Hamas terrorists with his bare hands, saving 30 of his comrades.

Guy Simhi

The year 5784 passed in a blur of choked breaths, tears, and the bravery of soldiers. It was a year of war on both the front lines and the home front, with hundreds of hostages taken and tens of thousands of Israelis displaced within their own country. Israel's deterrence capabilities were severely damaged, leaving a gaping hole in the nation's heart – a black void that expands daily, accompanied by an unrelenting longing for a son that only burrows deeper into one's heart and soul.

"Be strong and courageous and act"

Suddenly, on the eve of 5785, Israel seemed to turn a new leaf. From the depths of a heartbroken but breathing nation emerged courage, initiative, daring, and determination. The political and military echelons began to act according to King David's command to his son Solomon: "Be strong and courageous and act. Do not be afraid or discouraged" (1 Chronicles 28:20).

We are witnessing a strategic turning point in the Middle East. The elimination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah creates an opportunity for a new order. The dismantling of Hezbollah may lead to the return of Lebanon to the Lebanese people and the destruction of Iran's primary proxy on our borders. In the south, Hamas, whose military power has been largely dismantled, necessitates continued offensive action. This includes implementing a siege on the northern Gaza Strip and exerting dramatic pressure on Sinwar, if he is still alive, to return all living hostages in exchange for his exile to a third country.

In Yemen, our attacks have made it clear to the Houthis that they are very close to finding themselves in the same situation as Hezbollah and Hamas. When dealing with the head of the octopus, Iran, we must remember that Khamenei's main goal is to maintain his rule in the face of growing civil unrest. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, who formed the "ring of fire around Israel," were also part of the regime's security belt. Now that Israel has dismantled this chokehold, the Iranian regime is much more vulnerable and fearful for its continued existence. The Iranian people, who have not forgotten the hijab protests, may attempt to reignite demonstrations if they believe Western nations will support their efforts this time.

A new Middle East, for real

Citizens of the Middle East see what has happened to countries that continued to fight Israel: Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen have disintegrated. Countries that have made peace with Israel, even if it's a cold peace, are developing and improving their situations: Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and potentially Saudi Arabia.

A real opportunity for a "new order" has emerged, which will also influence the West. Israel must continue its offensive initiative to drive this geo-strategic shift and create conditions that will lead to the inclusion of more Arab states. This tectonic change will also affect the approach to the Palestinian conflict. It is clear to everyone now that a two-state solution is not relevant in the near future. Palestinian leadership will need to internalize that Israel will not agree to endanger its citizens, and a solution for safe living on both sides can be found.

In the past year, the people of Israel experienced both their worst disaster and their greatest success. As we approach the new year, we must continue this momentum of success and strengthen those engaged in this vital work. As Ecclesiastes said, "There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens" (Ecclesiastes 3:1). Now is the time to fight, to win, and to change the Middle East for future generations. Later, there will be time for soul-searching for everyone, and for us, time to mourn and weep for our beloved ones who have gone forever. A good year to all the people of Israel.

Tags: Gaza WarHamasHassan NasrallahIsrael

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