The unthinkable is happening in Syria. Within a week, opposition forces have seized Aleppo and Hama, leaving President Bashar Assad facing perhaps his final battle. The speed and scope of this collapse were unimaginable just months ago.
According to The Sunday Times columnist Samuel Ramani, the timing is hardly surprising. Assad's regime has been rotting from within, with Syria's economy in freefall – the pound down 80%, inflation at 60% – while the president sits atop his estimated $2 billion fortune. Meanwhile, Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine has stripped Syria of crucial military assets, from Su-25 jets to S-300 air defense systems, leaving Assad more vulnerable than ever.
"Assad's future hinges on the struggle for Homs," Ramani added. "It, along with Hama to the north, is critical for the army's logistical chains." The city represents a strategic lifeline, linking Iranian support to Damascus while protecting Russia's Mediterranean naval presence at Tartus. With Hama already fallen, the rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have a clear path to Damascus.
However, the outcome of Syria's tragedy may be that neither side promises stability. "HTS rule is a possible mirror image of Assad's regime," Ramani stated. Despite attempts to rebrand himself as a moderate, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani's al-Qaeda roots and past praise for the 9/11 hijackers, along with a record of economic mismanagement, excessive taxation, and arbitrary detention of opponents, tell a different story. "While Assad's regime might be on its last legs, the Syrian people's aspirations for freedom and prosperity are still a long way from being answered," Ramani concluded.
