The IAF remains uncertain whether three or four unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were launched by the Houthis toward Israel on Thursday morning. What is clear, however, is that the Houthis have increased their attempts to challenge Israel in recent days. One UAV was intercepted near Eilat, another was downed using soft defenses, and a third disappeared from radar and has yet to be located.
According to IDF assessments, the escalation of Houthi attacks is partly due to significant blows sustained by the "Axis of Evil." The Houthis are attempting to exploit this weakness to assume a leading role in attacks against Israel. Israeli officials acknowledge that the situation cannot continue and are preparing for the possibility of a third significant strike against Houthi targets in Yemen.
Evaluating strikes on the Syrian military
In Syria, The IDF continues to analyze the results of its strikes on Syrian armed forces. Current estimates indicate that 58-88% of Syria's air defense systems were critically damaged. The IDF maintains the search for any remaining systems that may reappear.
While IDF briefings have suggested that around 80% of Assad's military has been damaged, senior officers caution that this figure is overly ambitious and advise more conservative estimates. According to their analysis, the overall damage to Syria's military capabilities is lower, as intelligence does not cover every weapon system. The IDF prioritized striking Syria's strategic assets rather than less critical targets.
The operation in Syria involved the use of 1,800 munitions—none of which had been part of initial plans. The decision was made to focus on high-value assets. Since the beginning of the conflict, the IAF has deployed approximately 83,000 munitions across all combat zones.
The IDF's rapid response stemmed from the evolving dynamics of the Syrian civil war. When rebel offensives raised doubts about Assad's survival, the IDF prepared plans to gradually target remaining Syrian military assets in rebel-held areas.
In just 48 hours, the IAF struck over 500 targets in Syria. The strikes destroyed more than 85% of Syria's air defense systems and 40% of Assad's fighter jets. Additionally, 100% of Syrian explosive drones and 390 artillery positions were eliminated.
The timing of the operation posed a key dilemma. On one hand, Israel sought to avoid being seen as interfering in Syria's internal affairs. On the other, action was necessary before certain weapon systems disappeared or were relocated. Before the strikes, Russian forces had numerous air defense systems in Syria, but now, only a few remain.
According to IDF data, the following Syrian air defense systems were destroyed:
- 100% of SA-2 and SA-3 batteries,
- 86% of SA-22 and SA-6 systems,
- 80% of SA-17 batteries,
- 77% of SA-8 systems,
- 66% of SA-26 systems.
Overall, 86% of Syria's air defense systems were neutralized, enabling the IAF to operate almost freely over Syrian territory. In the past, strikes were conducted from a distance using long-range munitions. Now, the destruction of 100% of Syrian explosive drones, along with 90% of MiG-39 and 80% of Su-24 fighter jets, ensures greater operational flexibility.
The IDF also targeted sites believed to house chemical weapons, but intelligence gaps suggest that some stockpiles may remain undetected.
Escalating threats on Israel's northern front
Since the start of the war, over 22,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel, including 12,300 since the launch of Operation Northern Arrows. Of these, 900 rockets landed in Israel, though only 12 caused significant damage. The IDF reports a 91% interception success rate.
UAV threats persist as well. Since the conflict began, 648 UAVs have been launched at Israel, including 239 since Operation Northern Arrows commenced. While 94% have been intercepted, the remaining threats continue to trigger sirens and unsettle the public.
Israeli strikes have targeted all land crossings between Lebanon and Syria except the main route between Beirut and Damascus. The objective: preventing the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah or the movement of remaining Syrian military assets. However, some smuggling routes remain active and undetected by Israeli intelligence.
Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to center on Iran, with the Israeli defense establishment preparing for potential conflict with Tehran and its regional proxies. The IDF continues to strengthen its readiness for addressing the Iranian threat at all levels.
