How exactly does Donald Trump plan to make "all hell to pay" in the Middle East if the hostages are not released by the time he enters the White House in 11 days? Alongside increased military pressure, Israel should play a crucial role in developing the strategy and specific actions Trump is now preparing to ensure the threat materializes and doesn't remain just on paper.
The main obstacle to defeating Hamas and meaningfully advancing a hostage deal has been – and remains – the Biden administration's dictate to Israel to transfer humanitarian aid to Gaza in enormous quantities. This aid to the enemy during wartime – fuel, food, and more – still reaches Hamas, which profits from it by reselling it at inflated prices, making millions in profits, financing salaries for its personnel, recruits thousands more terrorists to its ranks, and most importantly preserves its civilian control over the Gaza population that depends on it.
All Trump needs to do regarding this highly damaging aid, which has effectively prolonged the war and the suffering of the hostages and their families, is to let Israel act as it sees fit. At least at the beginning of the war, Israel's "understanding" was that a complete siege on Gaza was needed because "we are fighting human beasts," and that there should be no "electricity, food, fuel, and everything should be closed," ad former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on October 2023.
The Biden administration, through threats of weapons embargo and removal of diplomatic protection for Israel, forced it to channel aid to Gaza, and consequently continue maintaining Hamas' civilian authority. Trump will need to grant Israel complete autonomy in handling this critical issue, to defeat Hamas and return the hostages.
The second major element of what Trump calls "all hell to pay" is calculated pressure on three countries – Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt, which on one hand depend on the US and enjoy very generous economic and military aid from it, and on the other hand, have significant connections and leverage over Hamas. Trump needs to clearly and sharply link these two aspects: Want aid? Take decisive action against Hamas.
Qatar, a Hamas state, hosts 2 million foreigners in its territory and its economy depends on them. The US can prohibit and reduce foreign residency in Qatar, thereby harming and even collapsing the emirate's economy. An even more powerful leverage point is the US CENTCOM base in Qatar, which provides crucial security guarantees to the emirate. Even a mere threat by the US to relocate this base could significantly destabilize Qatar's security position in the region.
Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, receives a respectable package of economic and military aid from the US, and just recently was approved for $5 billion in military aid, including tanks, aircraft, and ammunition.
Turkey, which hosts Hamas headquarters and commanders in its territory, imports goods from the US on which tariffs can be increased or imports banned entirely. Many more sanctions can be imposed on Turkey, and if the US merely desires it – also distance it from NATO.
Iran, which has been Hamas' primary supporter in recent years, could also face additional economic and oil sector sanctions. However, the US administration already has a strong stance on Iran and is likely to maintain pressure without requiring additional encouragement.
Another proposal under consideration involves a potential joint US-Israeli strategy: announcing that Israel would permanently annex portions of Gaza territory on a graduated schedule – with a specified amount of land being incorporated into Israel for each day the hostages remain in captivity. This approach should be among the options under consideration.
