The Israeli security establishment is expressing grave concern about potential damage to Israel's national security resulting from the growing distance between Israel and the United States.
This concern spans all security organizations (IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet), and has been raised in various forums recently, including directly to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz. It centers on three main issues: the nuclear agreement with Iran, regional security deals, and the situation in Gaza, with emphasis on the hostage issue.
On the first topic – Iran – it appears the US is advancing an agreement not substantially different from the previous nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration about a decade ago. Israel's demand for complete dismantling of the nuclear program (in the Libyan format, as Netanyahu stated) has been rejected by the administration, which also isn't addressing two other central issues concerning Israel: regional terrorism and Iran's missile and drone array.
The fear is that the agreement will not only preserve Iran's knowledge and means to achieve nuclear capability in the future, but will also release funds enabling it to rehabilitate its economy and resume significant support for its regional proxies.
On the regional issue, it appears that during President Donald Trump's visit to the Gulf beginning this week, massive deals will be signed in Saudi Arabia and possibly in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. These deals will include a significant military buildup, parts of which could threaten Israel's qualitative military edge (QME).
The possibility of a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia is considered a red line by most experts, which might now be crossed. Originally, Saudi Arabia was supposed to sign these deals alongside normalization with Israel, but the Trump administration has now decided to move forward independently, unlike the Biden administration, which conditioned them on a comprehensive regional agreement.
Declining focus on hostages
On the third issue, Gaza, signs are increasing that Trump might "flip" and call on Israel to stop the war. The administration's diminishing focus and that of its special envoy Steve Witkoff on the hostage issue are also raising concerns, given the centrality of the US in applying pressure on Qatar – and through it on Hamas leadership. While the organization is under pressure in Gaza due to Israel's military operations, various statements by its leaders suggest they believe Israel is currently at a strategic disadvantage that might lead it to show flexibility.
Israel's government shows no such signs and insists the Gaza operation will expand as planned immediately after Trump leaves the region. While the IDF is accelerating preparations, it's expected to face several complex challenges. The central one is the hostage issue, as their presence in Gaza will complicate the fighting. The video released Sunday of Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Chaim Ohana was another reminder of the hostages' difficult situation, which will certainly worsen once the IDF launches a large-scale offensive in Gaza.
Guerrilla warfare and snipers
Another issue is casualties on the Israeli side. After two quiet months, five soldiers were killed in Gaza last week. While Hamas hasn't restored its capabilities, it continues to challenge forces through guerrilla warfare, relying on weapons it has preserved (mainly RPGs and sniper rifles) and those it can still produce (mainly explosive devices using materials collected from IDF munition remnants).
It can be estimated that once fighting expands, the number of casualties will increase significantly – an issue that can't be dismissed, not only from the Israeli perspective but also from the Palestinian side – every casualty is perceived in Gaza as a Hamas achievement, encouraging it to continue fighting.
Government survival above all
There are additional issues, such as the question mark over the number of reservists who will report for duty, against the backdrop of the government's continued focus on the draft evasion law. Rumors about the intention to replace Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein suggest that the government's survival is more important to Netanyahu than anything else.
This claim is also raised in the security establishment regarding the deterioration of relations with Washington. Its essence: the prime minister is being dragged along by his government's extremists, sacrificing Israel's most critical security interests for their sake. It seems that at least in this matter, Netanyahu demonstrates consistency. He takes care to close ranks to protect his position, regardless of whether it involves Saudi Arabia, hostages, the Qatar scandal, or his testimony in his trial, which will soon enter its critical phase – the cross-examination that Netanyahu seeks to avoid by any means.
