The recent bloodshed in Syria only proves how far Jerusalem and Damascus remain from normalization, despite the optimism expressed in recent weeks, and how much closer the country is to descending into another civil war.
Since the outbreak of the Arab Spring in Syria in 2011, the country's Druze minority has faced existential threats, particularly from Sunni jihadist organizations such as Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra - al-Qaida's affiliate and the Islamic State's branch in Syria. These groups, which consider Druze to be heretics, were not content merely with fighting Bashar Assad's regime but aimed to "purify" their controlled territories of religious minorities.
The Druze, comprising roughly 3–5% of Syria's population (some 700,000 people), are concentrated in Jabal al-Druze in the Suwayda province in the south. Even before the civil war, the area suffered from neglect and lack of governance, and during the 14 years of conflict, it became a strategic weak spot in the Assad regime's defenses - vulnerable to jihadist terror and territorial encroachment. Between 2013 and 2018, jihadist forces significantly expanded their presence in southern Syria, at times operating dangerously close to major Druze population centers and even the Israeli border.
In June 2015, Jabhat al-Nusra, led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa., threatened to overrun the village of Hader in the Syrian Golan Heights. It was only the determined resistance of local Druze residents, aided by Assad-aligned militias, that prevented the jihadists from advancing.
Two years later, in November 2017, the Druze faced another wave of violence. After a series of attacks culminating in a car bombing that killed nine people, protests erupted in Israel. Tensions among Israeli Druze communities were so high that IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis issued a statement declaring that "the IDF is prepared to assist the residents of the village and will prevent harm or occupation of Hader out of commitment to the Druze community."
Yet the warning proved short-lived. In July 2018, Islamic State carried out a series of coordinated attacks in Suwayda and nearby villages, killing more than 250 people, most of them Druze civilians, and kidnapping dozens of women and children. "We are ready to act, financially or otherwise," said Rafiq Halabi, head of the Daliyat al-Karmel local council, at a protest rally. The spiritual leader of Israel's Druze community, Mowafaq Tarif, declared the Islamic State attacks to be "a brutal ethnic massacre."
The charm offensive led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's new ruler, and his efforts to project stability have now suffered a major blow. The ongoing clashes between jihadists and the Druze reveal a harsh truth: Syria's new regime lacks control and cannot contain the armed Islamist factions whose motivations are religious rather than political or diplomatic.
Just as jihadist elements affiliated with al-Sharaa's regime massacred Alawites in March and, in late June, killed 20 Christians in a suicide bombing at Mar Elias Church in Damascus, it now appears to be the Druze community's turn.
al-Sharaa's Syria is spiraling into chaos. A growing number of domestic extremist groups and foreign actors - Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia among them - are increasingly involved. In the absence of strong central leadership, there is a high likelihood of the country sliding into another civil war.
For Israel, this means a need not only for tactical readiness, responding to sporadic terror threats and attacks on Syrian Druze, but for strategic preparation. The emerging scenario involves escalating disorder and the risk of a renewed Syrian civil war, this time without a clear central authority like Assad. Israel must tread carefully to avoid clashes with al-Sharaa's ally, Turkey, or a war of attrition against radical Islamist factions in Syria. A comprehensive strategic posture will require building broad international understandings, particularly with the US, which only recently embraced al-Sharaa.
