In recent days, Israeli policy in Gaza has visibly collapsed on three fronts.
Regarding the hostages, from the prime minister down, Israel's leadership had been confident that a deal was within reach. That, now, appears unlikely.
On the military front, progress has stalled. While Israeli forces continue to pound the endless Hamas terror infrastructure above and below ground, the IDF has not entered the remaining 25% of Gaza where Hamas still maintains control. In essence, Israel is killing mosquitoes without draining the swamp.
A further collapse has occurred on the issue of humanitarian aid. The original plan was to have all food distribution in Gaza managed by the US-Israel fund GHF, which would have allowed for separating terrorists from civilians. But the IDF refused to implement such a division.
Meanwhile, an aggressive disinformation campaign about starvation in Gaza forced Netanyahu to instruct the Israeli Air Force to airdrop supplies into Hamas-controlled areas. The number of aid trucks entering Gaza has also surged dramatically, contradicting the blockade policy adopted by the cabinet months ago, another sign of policy breakdown.
Moreover, the trucks Hamas demanded as part of a recent deal are now being delivered without any hostage return or reciprocal concession. This alone is astonishing, but the issues run deeper.
The core problem is that no one in Israel's leadership seems to know how to navigate the tangle of interrelated predicaments, according to both military and political sources.
The IDF claims that entering the remaining Hamas-held territory could endanger hostages. But this assumption is not necessarily accurate. Several hostages have testified that tank convoys passed directly over their hiding places, yet their captors ensured they remained unharmed. One hostage was hidden under a staircase in a house occupied by Israeli soldiers for several days before being safely removed by Hamas. He is now home and healthy.
Still, in stormy cabinet meetings, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has demanded explicit political orders to enter the sensitive areas. Smotrich responded that the government had never instructed the military to avoid those zones, implying this was an internal army policy. Zamir shot back that Smotrich was "endangering the hostages." Smotrich, just as angry, replied, "And you're preventing victory."
Netanyahu is reluctant to issue a clear directive to enter those areas, fearing backlash from some hostage families and their support network. "There's a campaign," he's reportedly said several times in cabinet sessions.
Regardless of who's right, the chief of staff has not presented a clear plan for winning the war or retrieving the hostages. He also opposes taking responsibility for food distribution in Gaza. This mirrors the clashes between his predecessor Aviv Kochavi and Netanyahu and Smotrich. Instead of the cooperation seen during Operation "Lion's Den," the current dynamics are marked by political calculation and fear of public opinion, which only heightens tensions and solves nothing.
Zamir's General Staff is more aggressive than its predecessor, believing that continuous pressure will eventually break Hamas. Yet no clear timeline or operational roadmap has been offered.
The paralysis cannot be blamed solely on the military. Netanyahu is the one who assumed a hostage deal was imminent, and as a result, did not push the IDF for a swift defeat of Hamas. He has prioritized hostage release over military victory.
But all this bickering is consuming precious time, time that works against Israel. Most immediately, it's harming the hostages. In the broader sense, it's causing immense and lasting damage to Israel's international standing. While the Israeli public may not fully grasp the extent, the repercussions will linger for years.
It's true that Trump is on Israel's side. But even his administration pushed for aid to be allowed into Gaza. They, too, face international pressure, and Israel must remember there's a world beyond Trump. Germany, for example, played a role in prompting Netanyahu's recent shift in aid policy.
All of this has been possible because Netanyahu has effectively dismantled Israel's national public diplomacy apparatus. As a result, Hamas, the UN, and Israel's adversaries are waging their propaganda war against an empty field. The loss in the information war has led to the surreal outcome of Israel supplying its own enemy.
Does Netanyahu have a plan to escape this crisis? Experience suggests he usually has a card up his sleeve. Given how politically and practically painful his current policy is, there must be a rationale we are not privy to. If not, his government may collapse within days.
Yet early elections are the last thing Israel needs in its current state. Instead, to pull the campaign cart out of the Gaza quagmire, Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who has been conspicuously absent lately, Smotrich and Zamir must set aside their disputes and hash out a consensus plan. For now, there are no hostages and no victory, only daily humanitarian aid to Hamas and war pauses, while our brethren, the hostages, cry out from beneath the ground.
