Trump's latest statements on the ungoing war only deepens uncertainty, and perhaps deliberately so. He spoke of an appeal by "Iran's new president" for a ceasefire, but it is unclear whom he meant. Most likely he was referring to Mojtaba Khamenei, although according to reports it is not clear whether the heir apparent is even alive and functioning.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump praised that same "president," describing him as more moderate and intelligent, but made clear that a ceasefire would come only once the Strait of Hormuz was open and free. Until then, he said, the bombing would continue.
In practical terms, Trump is setting a clear condition for a ceasefire: the reopening of Hormuz. He does not address other issues, including the nuclear program, missiles and the rest of the objectives that had been set out as targets, which he said would be discussed during negotiations. This is despite the fact that he hinted that the nuclear issue had already been resolved.
Trump also spoke of the war ending soon, but is now talking about continued bombing, another contradictory message.
With no official response from Iran, expectations are focused on developments in the field. If there is indeed a marked increase in the departure of ships and tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, that could indicate advanced contacts. Even so, that possibility appears unlikely after Iran attacked oil tankers in Kuwait and Qatar.
According to a diplomatic source in the region, Washington is receiving an increasing stream of messages from Gulf states saying their firm position is that the war should end only after the Iranian threat to them and to the Strait of Hormuz has been removed.
