Two last-minute ceasefire initiatives, one put forward by Egypt and the other by Oman, have failed. Both proposals, with minor differences, called for a 48-hour ceasefire during which Iran would allow a larger number of tankers and ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, Iran and the US were to exchange initial position papers for negotiations.
According to two regional diplomatic sources, Iran gave no response to the proposals, while the United States made clear that its demand for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was unconditional from Tehran's side. Egypt sent a message to Washington saying it was still awaiting a reply and assessed that the delay stemmed from the difficulty facing Iran's leadership, scattered across different bunkers, in forming a unified position. Only yesterday, the Americans bombed an underground command bunker where, according to assessments, several leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were present.
Against that backdrop, American forces are expected to intensify both the pace of the strikes and the nature of the targets. President Donald Trump approved the attack plans as early as the weekend, and they are expected to focus on strategic economic targets, chiefly facilities linked to Iran's oil industry, including petrochemical and petroleum plants. These industries are controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, serving as a major source of income.
In addition, the target bank also includes secondary facilities such as power stations, bridges and railway lines, especially around the capital, Tehran. According to diplomatic sources, the goal of the joint American-Israeli move is to cripple Iran's economy on a scale that will force the regime to soften its position and accept at least some of the demands. A diplomatic source told Israel Hayom that the regime is trying to conceal the extent of the damage and is even denying some of the losses, but will not be able to do so for long.
At the same time, strikes are continuing against missile launchers that are still threatening Israel and the Gulf states. Israel and the US have updated their assessment and now believe Iran still has the ability to keep launching missiles, even at a lower rate, for about another month. Even so, officials in Washington and Jerusalem hope the heavy blows will bring the fighting to an earlier end.
Meanwhile, contacts between Israel and the Gulf states are continuing. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait are presenting a unified position that attacks on Iran must not stop until its military threat to the region and to the Strait of Hormuz has been removed.
The current assessment is that if Iran's leadership continues to dig in, the next target will be a complete halt to oil exports, the main lifeline of the Iranian economy, which has already been hit since the start of the war. Among the options being considered are taking control of Kharg Island, from which most tankers depart; bombing the facilities and the port; or blocking the maritime route used by Iranian tankers through the US Navy. Such a move is expected to bring about economic collapse that, according to the assessments, even fanatical ideology will not be able to prevent.
