President Donald Trump's surprise early Wednesday announcement of a ceasefire with Iran does not represent a victory for either side, whatever claims may be made in the days ahead. The real winner is one major nuclear-armed player: Pakistan.
Islamabad, which has recently faced significant diplomatic challenges and limited standing on the world stage, now finds itself in a leading, visible, and constructive role shaping the regional agenda – under the leadership of Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. It is a sharp reminder that in today's extreme geopolitical climate, the standing and perception of nations can shift in deeply unpredictable ways.
Many rushed to write off Pakistan. The country has struggled with structural economic difficulties for five decades – difficulties that worsened significantly after 2022, when catastrophic flooding struck the country. In 2023, its economy teetered on the brink of collapse, as government relief efforts meant to ease the crisis instead deepened budget deficits, swelled public debt, and sent inflation surging. Pakistan's debt history reflects a chronic condition: since 1958, it has undergone no fewer than 23 International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue programs. Today, it is under a sweeping $7 billion financing program approved in 2024, designed to stabilize countries facing severe balance-of-payments problems, in addition to a $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (a short-term emergency credit mechanism) from 2023, which provides immediate financial relief.
At the same time, Pakistan's regional and international standing eroded steadily, accompanied by a deep crisis of confidence that struck raw nerves in Washington. Ever since US Navy commandos killed Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil in 2011, relations with the US and the West deteriorated sharply. The imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, along with Washington's accusations that Islamabad had covertly supported the Taliban throughout two decades of war in Afghanistan, only deepened the rift. While Pakistan sank into diplomatic isolation, the Washington–New Delhi axis underwent a transformation. After decades of mutual suspicion, sanctions, and competing interests, the US and India found themselves on a path of strategic convergence. As the world's gaze turned toward India's economic rise and its consolidation as a global power – alongside the tightening of its ties with Gulf states – Islamabad was left far behind, mired in chronic instability.
A new chapter
Donald Trump's return to the White House marked a recalibration of Islamabad's relationship with Washington and cleared Pakistan's path back to the center of the global stage. Yet the seeds of change could be detected even earlier. During his first visit to the US under the new Trump administration, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar boasted that Pakistan had broken out of its diplomatic isolation through what he called "active diplomacy."
At a gathering of the Pakistani diaspora in New York, Dar pressed the same line, calling on Pakistani expatriates to invest in their homeland – and invoking an unlikely model of inspiration: the approach that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had used to strengthen ties with the Indian diaspora. The warming began in May 2025, against the backdrop of Operation Sindoor (a short, intense military confrontation between India and Pakistan), during which Pakistan openly embraced Trump's mediation offer while Modi and his government remained guarded. While India held to its traditional position opposing third-party involvement in the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan, under Munir's leadership, shrewdly exploited Trump's well-known appetite for praise and admiration. The Pakistanis hailed him as a "global peacemaker" and formally put forward his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Between Trump and Munir, a warm personal rapport took shape, with Trump calling him "my favorite general." Later, in direct response to Trump's personal request, Pakistan joined the Board of Peace and expressed formal support for his plan for Gaza's rehabilitation.
Inflation surges in a country where 40% live in poverty
The outbreak of war with Iran at the end of February hit Pakistan's economy with a force unmatched among its neighbors in South and East Asia. Inflation spiked to a 17-month high, and the price of a liter of fuel climbed to 378 rupees (approximately $1.36) – an impossible threshold for a country where some 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. The surge in prices ignited widespread protests across the country and forced the government to implement sweeping austerity measures, including cutting the public-sector workweek to four days, imposing localized lockdowns, and offering 30 days of free public transit in major cities to blunt public anger.
What made matters worse was Pakistan's conspicuous silence as its ally Saudi Arabia came under Iranian attack – a silence that cast a heavy shadow over its strategic credibility. It was clear that any further delay in the negotiations could drag Islamabad into the conflict as an active participant under the mutual defense agreements to which it is a party.
The pivotal moment came when Iran struck Saudi oil facilities linked to American companies – a response to an attack on petrochemical plants in Tehran, just 24 hours before an ultimatum was set to expire. The move threatened to unravel the negotiations entirely and ignite a full-scale confrontation, just as Pakistan's window for action was closing. At that point, China entered the picture, succeeding where others had failed in persuading Iran to step back from the brink.
Pakistan's diplomatic success in brokering the latest ceasefire demands a reassessment of its standing. While Pakistani mediation prevented a dangerous regional escalation, it also exposed the strength of Islamabad's new grip at the heart of the Middle East. Backed by its defense agreement with Riyadh from last September – a move that many see as a first step in eroding Israel's nuclear superiority in the region – Pakistan now positions itself as a central pillar of the new regional order.
Dr. Oshrit Brivadker is an expert in India's foreign and security policy, a consultant to defense companies, and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
