A fierce power struggle is unfolding at the top of the Iranian regime, with the civilian leadership seeking to preserve dialogue with the United States while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps pushes for continued military escalation, according to a New York Post report citing regional sources familiar with developments in Tehran.
On one side, according to the report, are civilian leaders President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who want to keep the channel for dialogue with the United States open and prevent the situation from deteriorating into a broader regional conflict. On the other side is the Revolutionary Guards, which the sources said continues to promote a more hard-line approach, relying on military pressure and escalation as a means of achieving its objectives.
One source said the politicians' power was steadily eroding. "They can sign agreements, but they cannot stop the Revolutionary Guards from acting on the ground or parliament from passing laws that circumvent them," the source said.
According to the source, the Revolutionary Guards does not need to win the regime's internal debates. Instead, it creates "facts on the ground" through military action, after which parliament grants those actions legal legitimacy. "This shift is already underway, and once it is enshrined in law, it will be very difficult to reverse," the source said.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the New York Post that while Iranian politicians continued to speak publicly about dialogue, those who actually made the country's security decisions still believed military escalation was the best way to ensure the regime's survival. The divide between the political leadership and the security establishment was not new, he said, but Iran's most important centers of power had recently appeared to be shifting more clearly toward confrontation.
Sources familiar with the situation told the New York Post that the Revolutionary Guards' growing power was also evident at public events. During the funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the front rows were occupied mainly by Revolutionary Guards personnel rather than senior civilian officials.
In addition, some speeches by senior political leaders were broadcast on television only after being edited, rather than being aired live. According to the report, this raised questions about who controlled the regime's official messaging. The report also said the Iranian parliament was working to restrict the room for maneuver available to the camp that supported diplomatic engagement, as the Revolutionary Guards expanded its influence over state institutions.
Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials traveled to Pakistan this week in an effort to keep communication channels open, with Islamabad acting as a mediator. One source assessed that the civilian leadership could regain strength if the Revolutionary Guards concluded that its options for obtaining weapons on international arms markets were narrowing.
The prolonged absence of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, from public view since succeeding his father following his death has further deepened uncertainty over who is making the country's strategic decisions. According to the sources, in the absence of a figure with sufficient authority to settle disputes between the rival camps, each faction is acting to advance its own agenda.
Ben Taleblu warned that public statements by senior Iranian officials in support of dialogue should not be interpreted as a change in the regime's policy. Diplomatic rhetoric did not necessarily reflect where decisions were truly being made in Tehran, he said, arguing that real authority remained in the hands of the security establishment.
