Nvidia is set to release its fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday, with the conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET – midnight in Israel. Wall Street expects roughly $2.09 in adjusted earnings per share on revenue near $92 billion.
The report arrives with the AI chip giant's stock facing an unusual dynamic: Even when Nvidia beats expectations, investors have increasingly punished the stock rather than rewarded it.
A nearly unbroken streak of beats
Nvidia's track record of topping Wall Street's earnings forecasts is one of the most consistent in corporate America. Over its last 23 reported quarters, the company beat consensus EPS estimates 21 times – a 91.3% hit rate, according to data cited by Yahoo Finance. Looking at the eight most recent quarters specifically, Nvidia posted seven beats against a single miss:
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Q1 FY2027 (May 2026): Beat estimates by 5.5%, with EPS of $1.87 versus $1.77 expected.
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Q4 FY2026 (Feb. 2026): Beat by 5.3%, EPS of $1.62 versus $1.54 expected.
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Q3 FY2026 (Nov. 2025): Beat by 3.5%, EPS of $1.30 versus $1.26 expected.
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Q2 FY2026 (Aug. 2025): Beat by 4.1%, EPS of $1.05 versus $1.01 expected.
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Q1 FY2026 (May 2025): Missed by 5.9%, EPS of $0.76 versus $0.81 expected — the lone miss in the stretch.
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Q4 FY2025 (Feb. 2025): Beat by 5.3%, EPS of $0.89 versus $0.85 expected.
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Q3 FY2025 (Nov. 2024): Beat by 8.5%, EPS of $0.81 versus $0.75 expected.
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Q2 FY2025 (Aug. 2024): Beat by 5.7%, EPS of $0.68 versus $0.64 expected.
Revenue has followed a similarly reliable pattern, with the company topping consensus revenue forecasts in 17 straight quarters, according to Benzinga's earnings tracker. In its most recent report, Nvidia posted $81.62 billion in revenue against a $79.12 billion estimate.
The stock doesn't always follow the numbers
Despite this beat streak, Nvidia's share price has moved lower the day after its last four earnings reports – a trend that has puzzled analysts and traders alike, according to Yahoo Finance. The pattern breaks down like this over the last eight reports:
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Q1 FY2027: Beat by about 6%, stock fell 1.8% the next session.
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Q4 FY2026: Beat by about 5%, stock fell 5.5%.
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Q3 FY2026: Beat by about 3%, stock fell 3.2%.
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Q2 FY2026: Beat by about 4%, stock fell 0.8%.
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Q1 FY2026: Beat by about 8%, stock rose 3.3%.
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Q4 FY2025: Beat by about 5%, stock fell 8.5%.
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Q3 FY2025: Beat by about 9%, stock rose 0.5%.
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Q1 FY2025: Beat by about 10%, stock rose 9.3%.
Zooming out, a review of 42 earnings reactions dating back to 2016 shows Nvidia has closed higher the following trading session 24 times and lower 18 times – a 57% win rate, with an average absolute move of about 6.7% in either direction, according to data compiled by market analytics firm SimianX. That suggests the size of the swing is more predictable than its direction.
Ahead of Wednesday's report, options markets were pricing in an expected next-day move of roughly plus-or-minus 5.4%, according to Reuters, implying a potential swing of around $280 billion in Nvidia's market value in either direction.
Why the disconnect?
Analysts point to a shift in what moves the stock: With earnings beats now the expectation rather than the surprise, investors are focused less on backward-looking results and more on forward guidance, data-center demand trends, gross margins, and any signs of slowing momentum in AI chip orders. A "good enough" quarter – even one that technically beats estimates – can trigger a selloff if guidance underwhelms lofty expectations already priced into the stock.
That dynamic sets up Wednesday's report as a test of whether Nvidia can finally reverse its recent pattern of post-earnings declines, or whether the fifth beat in a row will again fail to lift shares.
