An unusual announcement from the Russian Foreign Ministry on its anti-aircraft defense system's impressive interception of air force strikes in Syria surprised security and intelligence officials in Israel and overseas. For many, the statement appears aimed at sending the message Israel will no longer be able to operate freely in Syria. While this conclusion seems premature, the very fact such an announcement was made demands in-depth clarification.
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The announcement was originally made by a senior officer who heads the Russian military's Reconciliation Center in Syria. It was accompanied by unverified reports in the Arab press Moscow had decided to actively assist the Syrians in their effort to put an end to Israeli operations against Iranian targets on their soil and had even updated the US as to the shift in policy.
Other media outlets raised the possibility the statement heralded the end of Israel's special relationship with Russia, the result of warm ties forged between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that afforded Israel freedom of action in the neighboring country and faded with the establishment of the new Israeli government.
Sources with knowledge of the issue, however, have raised several other possible reasons for the Russian statement. One possibility, they say, is that this is part of a Russian effort to prove to the Syrians it was not their S-PANTSYR anti-aircraft system that failed to intercept Israelis missiles up until now but rather the system's inept Syrian operators. As soon as the Russian began operating the system themselves, the Russians are in fact arguing, the system proved a success.
Regardless of what spurred the announcement, Jerusalem must act without delay to renew strategic coordination with Russia in Syria.
There is an equally important and urgent need to reach understandings with US President Joe Biden's administration on what appears likely to be a shift in US foreign policy. Following the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington will also seek to decrease its forces in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, possibly enabling the Iranians to tighten their grip on Syria.
What holds true of the need for understandings with the Biden administration is also true for the region, and is doubly relevant for the Iranian nuclear project.
To date, negotiations between world powers and the Iranians on a return to the 2015 accord have stalled. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei doesn't want to hear about a new, "long-term, stricter" deal the likes of which Washington was looking to sign. Eight years from now, the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program will be lifted and two years from now, all the sanctions on its ballistic missile production will be removed.
In the meantime, Iran is using the time to become a nuclear threshold state: It has tripled the amount of uranium enriched to 60% in its capacity, stopped proving International Atomic Energy Agency agents information, and beginning to operate faster and more advanced centrifuges.
The Biden administration is embarrassed. On one hand, no progress has been made toward a nuclear accord. On the other hand, it has no real alternatives to the inadequate sanctions his predecessor Donald Trump imposed on the regime. Under these circumstances, there is an urgent need for dialogue and coordination between the US and Israel on military alternatives.
To deter Iran, Dennis Ross, a former senior official in three US administrations, and former CIA director David Petraeus proposed Biden offer Israel a huge, bunker-busting BU-57 bomb that can destroy the Iranians' nuclear facility in Fordo, which is built into a mountain, as well as the heavy aircraft to transport the bomb.
In an opinion piece for The Washington Post, Ross and Petraeus argued: "While some may question whether we would act militarily if the Iranians were to dash to a bomb, no one questions whether the Israelis would do so."
This, too, should be discussed with the White House without delay.
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