There is a chance that something good could come out of the humiliating withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. Perhaps it will force United States President Joe Biden to shift course and break away from his predecessor's dreadful and dangerous legacy. Such a scenario would certainly bode well for Israel and its Arab allies.
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There have been fascinating cases of policy shifts in American history, both worldwide and in the Middle East, when US presidents whose policies failed recalculated their routes. On the other hand, there have also been leaders who refused to admit their mistakes. It is too early to tell with regard to Biden.
Everyone agrees that Washington's global policy will be tested mainly in relation to China. After its streak of failures in Afghanistan, America's reputation is that it abandons its allies and plays into the hands of its enemies. It does so systematically, largely due to a lack of understanding of the priorities of foreign cultures, which has become deeply rooted in American strategic thinking.
The last thing the US wants is for this reputation to determine the behavior of Asia and other countries, on whose support it relies.
Israel is a clear example of a junior ally, repeatedly frustrated by the inherent failures of the American thinking, but without an alternative, has no choice but miss the realistic White House exceptions, such as Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger. India is a clear example of a superpower without which Washington cannot effectively deal with Beijing, but has much more freedom of action.
A pressing need for Biden is to prove that America can be relied upon. He needs to deal with daring China that can "smell" weakness and further threaten Taiwan, as well as calm the concerns of US allies about the superpower's helplessness and lack of direction.
If Biden were to renew the nuclear deal with Iran under the current circumstances, he would send a message to the world that the US has abandoned Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the rest of its allies in the Middle East, all in a foolish attempt to appease its enemies.
Biden must understand ahead of time that such a surrender would be perceived in Asia as the US lifting sanctions off Iran and essentially making peace with the fact that Iran is developing nuclear bombs and is working to gain hegemony over the region.
The US president has not failed. Yet. There is a chance he will continue in the footsteps of his mentor. Former President Barack Obama denies his failure in Egypt (the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood), Turkey (alliance with turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan), the Palestinian matter (strengthening their stance), Syria (inviting Russia in and making it more powerful), Iraq (dominance of Iranian militia) and Iran (abandoning the rebels in 2009 and signing the nuclear deal in 2015).
If Washington wants to reduce its military presence in the Middle East, it must do so responsibly, not like in Afghanistan, where it not only left radicals who seek to take over the region in charge, but who hate America.
Washington has at its disposal a rare Middle East exception, a strong and determined ally – Israel. It leads an Arab coalition with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates whose capabilities complement those of Israel.
One has to be no less detached from reality than Obama was to give up this precious opportunity in favor of the illusion of Iranian reconciliation and moderation.
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