It is doubtful whether there is a senior political or defense official in Israel these days, who is privy to issues concerning the Gaza Strip and who does not believe that we are facing a rare – perhaps even a one-time – opportunity to reach understandings with Hamas on issues that until recently seemed impossible.
This is not to say that anyone in Hamas' leadership has developed a conscience or has become a great humanitarian. If anything, this is about pure pragmatism.
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The Gaza Strip is facing unprecedented hardship and the abyss has never been closer or more ominous: The economy is failing, as is the energy sector; infrastructure, especially concerning sanitation, is – according to some – verging on being the worst in the world; and the failed healthcare system in the enclave has no chance of dealing with a coronavirus outbreak, which has so far been kind and has yet to erupt with full force across the Strip.
Nearly six years have passed since Operation Protective Edge. Hamas provoked the 2014 hostilities hoping that the West and the Arab world would rally to Gaza's aid and bail it out of its dire economic situation.
Assurances indeed came its way as the global community sought to extinguish the conflict before it engulfed the entire Middle East, but there were zero follow-throughs. By that time, the budding nuclear deal with Iran (which was signed in 2015) and the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group had grabbed the world's attention, and Gaza was left to fend for itself, facing nothing but a bleak future.
For over three years Hamas waited for someone to reach out. Israel had its share of chances to do so but it chose not to, thus wasting the leverage provided by the lull achieved following the 2014 conflict. The situation in Gaza continued to deteriorate and Hamas eventually ran out of patience.
On March 31, 2018, it launched the "March of Return" – a campaign compromising weekly violent riots staged each Friday near the Gaza-Israel border, signaling the resumption of the violent conflict with Israel.
The past year, however, has seen Israel help Hamas slowly roll back the border protests. At times with carrots, such as allowing Qatar to send monthly aid to Gaza amounting to millions of dollars; and at times with sticks, such as the targeted assassinations of senior terror operatives.
Behind the scenes, with Egyptian mediation, Israel and Hamas have been trying to hammer out a series of understandings that would sustain a long-term ceasefire – something between the "resolution" Gaza rulers' want and the "calm" Israel is after.
The difference between the two is not just semantic. Israel is willing to go all the way toward a "resolution" – including the comprehensive rehabilitation of the Strip and the construction of extensive infrastructure, including an option for air and sea ports. But in return, it demands the demilitarization of the coastal enclave and the return of the two Israelis and remains of two soldiers held by Hamas.
Hamas won't even entertain the idea of demilitarization and it has set an impossible price on a prisoner exchange deal.
The global coronavirus pandemic, however, has prompted a shift in Gaza. Hamas is ready to negotiate and its leadership seems more pragmatic. This has led top political and defense official to believe that there is a real – and rare – chance to finalize a deal that would bring home the remains of fallen IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, and two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, both suffering from mental health issues, who voluntarily crossed into Gaza and are being held there.
A deal of this nature comes at a price and to see it through, Israel will have to make some painful concessions. Security prisoners will have to be released. Most of them will be elderly and ailing, but Hamas also insists that all terrorists that were re-arrested after their release in the last prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, in 2011, also be included in the deal.
The government will have to decide on the matter sooner rather than later. The IDF and Shin Bet security service believe that Israel has a golden opportunity at this time not only to bring closure to the families of the Israeli captives but also to make significant headway vis-à-vis Hamas. If Israel is able to offer Gaza a generous package of humanitarian aid and medical supplies with which to fight the coronavirus, it will be able to carve our significant leverage with respect to a long-term arrangement with Hamas.
None of this means Hamas will suddenly become an avid supporter of the Jewish state. But its leaders are fearful of a widespread corona outbreak and they are concerned that the combination of an economic and health crisis will translate into mass protests against its rule over the Strip.
This window of opportunity cannot be missed. Israel's captains must remember that if forced to choose between its own rule and Israel's security, Hamas will opt for the former and it will ignite another round of violence.
