When it comes to tensions between the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, which of these two allies should Israel support? There's tremendous importance and great benefit to Israel's recent normalization of ties with the Arab world, but it also raises several previously unknown dilemmas.
Now that the Arab world is no longer against Israel in principle, we need to learn to navigate the tensions between Israel's various Arab allies.
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Shakespeare's famous line "Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows" has been adapted to describe strange partnerships in the political arena as "Politics makes strange bedfellows."
This is how Israel and Egypt came to collaborate in the 1960s, when they found a common enemy, the radicals who tried to drag Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser into a confrontation with Israel over Jordanian waters.
In this new era, the political arena is more complex and its participants are greater in number.
Israel's number one ally in the region is Egypt and its president Abdel Fattah El-Sissi. The 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty shifted the power of balance in the region to Israel's benefit. El-Sissi saved Egypt, the Middle East and Israel from the threat of the Muslim brotherhood, which was dragging the region into radicalism, war, and bloodshed.
Last year's most important alliance was with the United Arab Emirates. It signals that the normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia is possible, promises economic and security collaboration as well as cooperation in the fight against radicals in the region.
The UAE elite is presenting for the first time the format of complete legitimization of the Jewish state. Egypt might be more significant, but the UAE brings addition value to the region and to Washington.
Egypt, UAE and Israel belong to the same regional camp.
All three are aware of Iran's regional hegemony aspirations, fight the Muslim Brotherhood, fear Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attempt to impose his rule in the eastern Mediterranean basin, oppose the Lybian government which supports the Turkish dictator and support Lebanese rebel General Khalifa Haftar.
Israel, Egypt, and the UAE all rely on the United States, but there are substantial differences between the three.
While Egypt is mainly concerned with the Muslim Brotherhood, and Turkish and Libyan threat to its western border, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia worry about Iran and its proxies.
While Egypt sees the Ethiopian activity on the Nile as an existential threat, the Emirates are examining the southern arena in the Red Sea in the broader context of dealing with the Houthis in Yemen and the Red Sea.
In all these matters there's tension and competition: the United Arab Emirates, often with Saudi backing, are much less rigid when it comes to the Qatari supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and the government of Libyan President Fayez al-Sarraj.
The depth of the ties between Israel and the United States is also a cause for concern in Cairo. Egypt praised the Abraham Accords, but Emirati Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and the United States did not need El-Sissi to establish the normalization, the bilateral ties bypass Cairo and could end at its expense.
The Biden government is expected to pressure El-Sissi on human rights violations, and Egypt's previous status as Israel's sole ally in the area will no longer protect it.
It is unlikely that Egypt will lose its status as the largest and most unified Arab state, but it is gravely defendant on economic aid, unlike its competitors in the Persian Gulf.
This dependence is always mentioned when discussing Egypt's importance in the region. But this importance is fading away right in front of Egypt's eyes.
Israel has to acknowledge these sensitivities and navigate the tensions carefully. It is important to use new opportunities, but we can't abandon allies who have proved their value.
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