"Everything with you is fake news. You know little, about almost nothing," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insulted Opposition leader Yair Lapid in the Knesset on Wednesday. The speech was a low blow from Netanyahu that played into Lapid's hands. And it didn't happen randomly; Netanyahu was fingering Lapid as the person most likely to take him on in an election, if there is one.
But an examination of the polls indicates that Lapid won't necessarily be Netanyahu's main adversary. There are reasons to think that in the next election, Naftali Bennett will be the one to put up a fight.
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The polls are giving Bennett a double-digit number of seats, sometimes close to 20. In other words, not too far off from the number projected for Yesh Atid. When respondents are asked who is the best candidate to serve as prime minister, Bennett is always up there, usually second or third after Netanyhau.
More importantly, unlike Lapid, Bennett has room to maneuver in forming a coalition. .The Haredim haven't severed ties with him, and if they enjoy warmer ties with Netanyahu, at least Bennett is seen as a legitimate partner. Blue and White isn't hostile to Bennett, and even offered to cooperate with him in the past. Even Bennett's and Gantz's views on diplomatic issues can be bridged, since the Palestinian issue is not a burning one at this time.
Avigdor Lieberman, who used to be Bennett's bitter rival, could join forces with him as part of a project to oust Netanyahu, as he called it. Even Lapid might join them, with the same goal in mind (although it would be more difficult for him to team up with the Haredim). Therefore, Bennett's numbers are better than Lapid's.
Bennett's meteoric rise in the polls is mostly the result of his conduct during the coronavirus crisis. From the start, when he was still defense minister, he was coming up with ideas and executing plans that were both smart and effective. What he suggested at the beginning, the clumsy government adopted months later.
In terms of his public image, while the rest of the politicians were vying to "out-nasty" each other, and Netanyahu was preoccupied with his tax refund, Bennett was in the field, scoring points. These are the main explanations for why Blue and White has lost five projected seats to Yamina, and a similar number of seats is expected to migrate to Yamina from the Likud.
And we can't forget about Israel's political history, which teaches us that national crises lead to political upheavals, and prompt Israelis to give players who used to appear hopeless a shot. Menachem Begin won the election after the 1973 Yom Kippur War; Netanyahu won in 1996 because buses were blowing up; Ariel Sharon made a comeback because of the Second Intifada. Lest anyone forget, at one time, Netanyahu had only 12 seats.
Bennett sparks antagonism in certain quarters but has a CV that better qualifies him to be prime minister than Lapid does. He has served in a number of ministerial positions, spent years in the cabinet, and of course, was defense minister. All this, plus the crisis political situation and the huge number of voters who are on the fence, have created the conditions for a major change.
In contrast to the traditional political rivalry in Israel, it's possible that this time, the electoral battle will be between two right-wing candidates. We know that the public veered to the Right some time ago, and is in a different place from the TV studios. Netanyahu has taken ownership of what was once considered the "sane Right" -- Israeli sovereignty. Blue and White disguised itself as a center-Right party in order to win the last election. No politician who wants to play on the national stage dares define himself as "left-wing." So most of the public will wind up having to decide between right-wing leaders. And if that comes to pass, Bennett will go into the fight in a stronger position, since Netanyahu never followed through on the application of sovereignty he promised.
It appears as if this entirely plausible scenario is what Netanyahu has had in mind in recent years. It is only one of the reasons for his hostility toward Bennett, but it's the main reason why he prefers to build Yair Lapid up as his main rival. Lapid has no chance of winning or forming a coalition.
The same cannot be said for Bennett. If he continues to gain in the polls and holds steady at around 20 seats, he will be Netanyahu's main challenger. But this is what is so absurd: in that situation, we most likely will not have an early election at all.
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