Ever since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, and even more so since Russia launched its failed attack on Ukraine in February 2022, the US leader has repeatedly said that he would like to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
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He has been relentlessly pursuing this goal because as far as he is concerned, this would free him to deal with the four key challenges facing the nation.
The first challenge is the strategic and economic threat from China on US vital US interests, which has recently become even more acute due to Beijing's rhetoric over Taiwan following Nancy Pelosi's visit. The second challenge is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the third is the need to move his social and environmental agenda through Congress. As far as Biden is concerned these four challenges are what will ultimately decide his political fate and his party's electoral prospects, at least for the near future. But the fourth and most pressing challenge is the ongoing war in Ukraine and the crisis in relations with Moscow, which created a new reality on the world stage by upending the New World Order that followed the Cold War.
It is now clear as day that the war will drag on for some time and that its impact on the US and global economy will continue for the foreseeable future, especially on the energy market. Thus, the new cold war that has emerged in recent years has only gotten worse in recent months. Against this backdrop, the US has led a policy of ever-escalating sanctions against the Kremlin and increasing support for Ukraine, putting Iran on the back burner. Biden hopes that a deal with the ayatollahs will free him from – what he considers – annoying background noises in the Middle East and allow him to present the American people with a foreign policy achievement in the form of stabilizing a global hotspot on the eve of the midterm elections. Moreover, even if the deal's overall benefits don't' materialize overnight, it will make a dent in energy prices and help reduce inflation in the US.
The fact that the US and EU are hell-bent on making a deal does not make its terrible flaws go away or its lack of reciprocity when it comes to the concessions on both sides. The main Iranian "concession" is its willingness to keep the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations. That does not present any real sacrifice. This is in part because the Revolutionary Guards will be able to do business with foreign entities through a host of workarounds.
The other elements of the deal also underscore a sellout on the part of the international community. For example, the emerging deal will effectively prevent the inspectors from engaging in any long-term or effective scrutiny of suspicious Iranian activity in four undeclared sites. The West's capitulation is also evident in its willingness to engage Iran on various guarantees to ensure Iran wouldn't be adversely impacted should the US withdraw from the deal in the future.
Moreover, even if the deal requires Iran to freeze its sophisticated enrichment activity using advanced centrifuges, there are still unanswered questions: Will the equipment be stored under the supervision of the powerless IAEA? Will it be dismantled and destroyed or will this be just for show, along the lines of the deal to have Syria destroy its chemical warfare stockpiles under Russia's supervision? What we have in the new Iran deal is plagued by appeasement, delusions, and one-sided concessions that the president has been keen on doing with his eyes wide open. The question is what kind of strategy Israel has to adopt in this dangerous reality.
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