At the beginning of February, Israeli-American White House envoy Amos Hochstein visited Israel and Lebanon, bringing proposals to promote a resolution to the gas-rich maritime territory that is disputed by the two countries. Hochstein did not reveal any details about what the visit achieved, but there was a sense that an agreement was on the horizon and both countries would do what was necessary when he returned, a visit scheduled for a few days from now.
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The announcements made, including those by Hezbollah, were encouraging. There was an understanding that Hochstein had convinced the Lebanese to drop their demand for another large chunk of territory in addition to the area under dispute, which comprises about 860 square kilometers (332 square miles). To make things easier for Lebanon, which is in the midst of a massive economic crisis, Hochstein suggested that international gas companies not wait for a formalized agreement and start producing gas and splitting it between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon rejected this idea because it saw the suggestion as a kind of normalization with Israel, and now has to respond to Hochstein's proposed division of the territory, which gives Lebanon the larger part.
But recently, everything has gone south, and ego is holding things up. The first ego is that of Lebanese President Michel Aoun himself. He wants to end the matter soon and claim victory before his term in office is over and he leaves the presidential palace.
The second ego in play is that of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. A decade ago, Berri was in charge of handling the issue, and he submitted Lebanon's claim to the UN, the same claim that forms the basis of the current talks. He sought to promote the issue and score points for himself, and indeed, a little over six months ago managed to convince the US to lead talks between Israel and Lebanon at Rosh Hanikra.
But President Aoun had different plans. He grabbed the reins and began coordinating the matter from the president's office. Now that an agreement appears closer than ever, Berri is having regrets, and wants to take charge ahead of any possible deals.
But the most problematic ego is Hezbollah's. The organization announced that it would not intervene and would allow the Lebanese government to handle things, but its political standing has been eroded domestically, and to improve it, it is sticking up its head and using the maritime border question for its own interests. Head of the Hezbollah faction in parliament declared that his organization preferred that the gas stay at the bottom of the sea rather than Israel enjoying any of it.
The Americans aren't pleased at these ego game, and want to put an end to the affair when Hochstein returns to the region. Inspired by Hezbollah, Lebanon appears to be gearing up to demand all the disputed territory for itself, an absurdity that the US and Israel cannot accept.
These demands will hold up a deal, and Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will exploit that. Without US pressure, nothing will shift. Given Washington's current position when it comes to Putin and Ukraine, China, and Iran, one might as whether the US will exert all its influence to bring an end to the maritime border dispute. If Lebanon demands all the territory, Israel won't have to dance to Nasrallah's piping and can start producing gas in the part of the territory that is supposed to belong to it.
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