Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak's re-entry into politics may not have gone as well as he planned, and there's a good chance he will not be elected into the next Knesset, but the move still created a far more tangible chance for the Left to find itself in a position to form a government, thanks to Meretz and Barak's Israel Democratic Party merging into the Democratic Union.
The party will definitely pass the 3.25% electoral threshold (roughly four Knesset seats) placing it in a position to team with Blue and White and create a formidable bloc. In the meantime, this prospect allows Blue and White to campaign aggressively ahead of the Sept. 17 election.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Right are facing something of a disadvantage given Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman's defection from the Right. This goes beyond a party crossing the line from Right to Left – this move seeks solely to bolster Blue and White's leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid and allow them to form the next government, and all over Lieberman's own petty, personal vendetta against Netanyahu.
As Lieberman has pledged to support the candidate whose party wins the most votes, and with polls predicting a tie between the Likud and Blue and White, we are all but promised they will find themselves going head-to-head, even more so than after April's election.
In order not to lose out on the chance of receiving Lieberman's endorsement, Gantz, Lapid, and Netanyahu will try to do everything in their power to create a lead, even if this comes at the expense of the bloc with which they are supposed to form a government.
However, while the Center-Left bloc is preparing for battle and has united in a way that ensures all of its small parties pass the electoral threshold, the Right is facing the very real possibility that at least two parties – Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party and Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Otzma Yehudit party – will be excluded from parliament.
Otzma Yehudit is still waiting for an invitation to join the United Right, the faction comprising the New Right, Habayit Hayehudi and National Union parties. Otzma Yehudit's voters are deeply loyal and they are in it for the long haul, even if it means they will be marching into the political wilderness. For the Right, this could mean between one and three lost mandates, which are critical if it is to remain in power.
So far, no poll has given the Right bloc a solid 61 mandates – the minimal requirement to form a coalition – sans Yisrael Beytenu, making Lieberman this elections' proverbial kingmaker. If neither the Left nor the Right can reach this magical number without him, Israel may find itself heading toward an unprecedented third election in the same year.
Otzma Yehudit is a radical party, making it a bitter pill to swallow not only on the Left but in most right-wing circles as well. But with all recent elections coming down to the wire, the leaders of the right-wing parties are out of time. All parties must present the Central Election Committee with their lists by midnight, Aug. 1, so the Right's leaders have to decide whether they are willing to hold their noses and take it, or watch the Left rise to power in little over a month.
