Defense Minister Benny Gantz's proposal to provide Lebanon with humanitarian aid does not stem from a sincere concern for the country's residents alone. Rather, the political, social and economic collapse of our neighbors in the north would constitute an immediate danger to Israel's security.
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If a civil war breaks out in Lebanon, Iran will rush to take over control, just as it did in Syria. Before the Israeli army can even blink, the entire southern Lebanon – which is already mostly under the control of Tehran's proxy, Hezbollah – will become a front for the Revolutionary Guards. That is the last thing Israel wants.
To get out of the crisis, Beirut is in dire need of a loan. The International Monetary Fund offered one solution that never came to fruition due to Beirut's refusal to comply with the demands outlined by the organization in return for aid.
One such demand is that the transitional government led by former Prime Minister Hassan Diab - who resigned after the Beirut port explosion last year – until a successor forms a new government, be replaced by experts who would work to bring about a series of economic and social reforms, and eradicate corruption among the authorities.
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri even managed to bring together a group of such experts who would help him create a government, but when he presented his plan to Lebanese President Michel Aoun – a known Hezbollah ally – to be tasked with the matter, he was rejected repeatedly and sent away with more corrections to make in the plan.
It is clear that Hezbollah is the one that sabotages the international organizations' attempts to create political and economic reforms in Lebanon. Its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, has stated several times that "international bodies will not determine the composition of the government in Lebanon. Only the Lebanese people have the right to choose who their leaders will be."
What makes the Lebanese governing system problematic is its ethnic division, according to which the office of the prime minister would always be reserved for a Sunni Muslim, the offices of president and chief of staff to a Christian, and only the speaker of parliament to a Shiite Muslim.
The defense establishment in Israel explains that although Hezbollah does not want a civil war in Lebanon, the current crisis does play in favor of the Shiite organization.
The collapse of the political system could potentially bring about a change, allowing Shiite Muslims to hold positions previously reserved for other ethnicities, leading to Iran taking control of all governing bodies and institutions.
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