Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets in Lebanon enlisted on Tuesday to stress the "fear gripping Israel" following threats by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Hezbollah's increased measures along the northern border.
An Al-Manar reporter climbed up the ridge that looks over Kibbutz Misgav Am to report that IDF patrols in the area had "completely vanished from the territory" and that IDF troops had "abandoned front-line positions." But while that was being reported, the entire top echelon in Lebanon was seized with fear that a Hezbollah response to the drone strike in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut would force Israel into a harsh retaliation against Hezbollah that would send everything up in flames and drag the entire country into a war no one wants.
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Before we even heard Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say that Nasrallah should "relax," Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Saad Hairi were working to soothe the Hezbollah leader, using a previously untried tactic.
Aoun, who is known as a Hezbollah collaborator, rushed to condemn the drone strike a "declaration of war" against Lebanon that "justified a response," while Hariri – Nasrallah's sworn enemy – called the drone incident "an attack on Lebanon's sovereignty."
These statements were not intended to prod Nasrallah into responding, but rather the opposite. Logic says that if this was an action "against the state of Lebanon and an attack on its sovereignty," it would be appropriate to leave the decision about how to respond to the Lebanese government, not Hezbollah alone. The government could carry out military action, or possibly take a diplomatic route, such as appealing to the United Nations or the UN Security Council.
There's no doubt that Nasrallah has no desire for a major military conflict with Israel right now, when his organization is engulfed in a serious financial crisis following heavy cuts to its Iranian funding and is still licking the wounds it sustained fighting in the Syrian war, in which Hezbollah racked up thousands of casualties and wounded. But while in different circumstances, Hezbollah might be able to ignore the drone attack, this time around there are three reasons why the organization feels compelled to respond.
First, the attack was a direct hit on a precision missile facility supplied by Iran. The facility allowed the organization to upgrade missiles' explosives payload and sharpen control over their paths. The drone strike interfered with the project.
Second, the drone strike was an action that created "noise" and was seen by passersby. It cannot be hidden.
Third, the drone strike was the second time in 24 hours that Nasrallah had been humiliated by Israel: once in Syria, when Israel took out two Hezbollah operations who were trying to launch explosives-laden drones toward Israel, and the second time when drones flew low into the heart of Nasrallah's hiding place in Beirut. This led Hezbollah to come up and disseminate the message that it would be carrying out a "calculated strike" against Israel, one that would not lead to a full-scale war.
Nasrallah is counting on the fact that Israel did not respond to an attack on IDF troops in January 2015, which came after six Hezbollah operatives were killed on the Golan Heights. It might try to recreate that scenario and attack IDF troops along the border, as it hinted it might do.
But there are no guarantees that this is how it will play out this time, and no one can ensure that the "calculated strike" won't get out of control and that a clash with Hezbollah won't escalate into a war.
Along with urging Nasrallah to calm down, Netanyahu could have reminded the furious Hezbollah leader that not only will Israel continue to strike at any members of the organization who try to take action against Israel from Syria or anywhere else, it will also keep up its efforts to thwart attempts by Hezbollah to refine or upgrades its missiles.
