As an analyst, I have been following closely the accelerated developments in the Iranian nuclear deal since the US administration proposed to Tehran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, out of which former President Donald Trump's administration withdrew in 2018. I note that the ayatollahs are doubling down on their brinkmanship strategy.
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Although they are convinced that the US sanctions will be lifted, despite their divergences, they are not making any concessions that encourage this course of action. They are moving in a completely opposite direction. They have not yet responded to the dialogue initiative.
In addition, they have suspended IAEA inspection missions and have threatened to raise the level of uranium enrichment to 60%. Commenting on what two European diplomats described as Iranian provocations, American and European officials have stated in press releases that their response would be calm and calculated.
The absence of a concrete response would reflect a desire not to disrupt the diplomatic initiative in the hope that Iran would return to the negotiating table or that American sanctions would remain effective if this does not happen. The reality is that President Biden's administration will not make any concessions regarding lifting the sanctions first, as demanded by the ayatollahs.
"However much they believe the US should lift sanctions first, that's not going to happen," said a US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
But the White House is not asking the ayatollahs, as was the case a few weeks ago, to announce their return to their commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal before the sanctions are lifted. "The best way and the only way is to get to the table where those things will be discussed," the official said.
Certainly, the most significant point at this point for the Western quartet – the US, Germany, France and Britain – is to avoid any moves that shut the door on diplomacy.
Here, the Europeans are perhaps very cautious in the face of what they describe as Iran's "rush" (i.e., the acceleration of its violations of its obligations under a nuclear agreement) and the "hesitation" of the US in seeking a way forward. Dangerously enough, the ayatollahs are interpreting Western calm differently.
They continue to violate the terms of the nuclear agreement, hoping that this will put more pressure on Western powers. Signals from Tehran suggest that the ayatollahs will keep up the pressure and threaten to achieve their goal, believing that President Biden has no other options for dealing with the regime.
We can cite the statement by Iranian Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei that his country "will increase uranium enrichment to 60% if it wants to approach the 90% purity necessary to make an atomic bomb."
It is as if he has given the ayatollahs the green light to abandon the fatwa "banning" the possession of a nuclear weapon that some Iranian officials have recently hinted at. It is thereby clear that the ayatollahs are deliberately ignoring the positive signals that the new US administration is sending to them. They continue to engage in blackmail and haggling.
This is quite predictable. President Biden's administration is consequently trying to avoid the ayatollahs' trap through calculated rigor. The State Department spokesperson recently confirmed that the US will not wait indefinitely.
"Our patience is not unlimited," he said, a sign of the new American team's growing impatience. But in Tehran, the situation can be comforting because it means the effectiveness of Iran's long-term political strategy, both in the pre-negotiation phase and in the negotiations themselves.
This actually happened before, when the nuclear dialogue took many years, and the ayatollahs gained many strategic advantages in an agreement that opened an unprecedented window of opportunity for their geographic and strategic regional expansion.
Ultimately, the Biden administration may be forced to continue working under the extreme sanctions of former President Donald Trump as the only way to respond to Iran's insistence that the US return to the agreement, as part of the White House's commitment to deal with the ayatollahs through diplomatic channels, unless European efforts succeed in persuading the ayatollahs to seize the opportunity and show flexibility in offering to negotiate appropriate formulas to end the nuclear crisis.
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