Like a marathon, full of ups and downs, the international community, under the leadership of the US, is closing in on signing a new nuclear deal with Iran.
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On both sides of the negotiating table, there are those who are taking care to create a thick smokescreen to "confuse the enemy." Sadly, the enemy, for our purposes, isn't Tehran, but those who oppose a deal with it – primarily Israel.
But the fog of battle eventually clears. In the past few days, it's become clear that despite the reports that both sides were digging in their heels to the point of an impasse and even a crisis in the Iran talks, both sides are nearing a decision.
From the first moment of Joe Biden's presidency, his administration hasn't hidden that he is determined to reach a deal at almost any price, one that will allow the US to close the "Iran file" and even detach itself from the problems of the Middle East, of which Iran was the core one.
The Iranians, for their part, was a deal that will remove the economic sanctions on them. But it has to be admitted that they are less determined and enthusiastic about a deal than the Americans, which is why they are making exorbitant demands that the Americans will apparently comply with.
There are some officials in Iran, particularly in the conservative, radical wing of its leadership, who see its isolation from the world and the atmosphere of siege the west has imposed on them as a blessing. There's nothing like a sense of the entire world being against them to ensure the survival of the ayatollah regime and the popular support for it. In any case, the West is repeating the mistakes it made with the Taliban, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, and Russia in assuming that economic sanctions have the power to bring down a regime or make it change its positions. This makes it possible to understand why the Iranians are dragging their feet, which is not only a negotiating tactic but also expresses their supreme leader's dilemma – does Iran need a deal at all?
So why does there need to be a deal?
No one disputes that the Iranians have made major progress toward nuclear weapons in recent years. Even though attempts to stop it slowed the progress and purchased precious time that has allowed better preparations for the future, when Iran achieves nuclear weapons status. It's clear that the Iranians need more time to create a living, breathing bomb, and even more time to work up to the ability to fire it on missiles or drop it using aircraft. But this process cannot be reversed, and in any case Iranian announcements of nuclear capabilities, even without "proof," are enough to send the region into a panic.
The new proposal asks Iran to sit quietly and not "tell the world" it has nuclear capabilities. For the Iranians, this is neither a plus nor a minus. The deal allows them to retain everything they have achieved thus far. They'll make it to a nuclear bomb in any case, although we can assume that in the meantime, they'll prefer to maintain ambiguity and avoid any provocative step that is not necessary to their battle for regional hegemony against Israel.
But experience teaches us that a radical, aggressive power such as Iran cannot be stopped using smiles, bribes, or deals that give us quiet for a time but do not lead to any true change of direction. After all, the forces of evil always aspire to achieve power and show it off, and when it comes to the nuclear question, their reasoning is that only power will ensure their survival and future. The Iranian bomb hasn't been neutralized, and even if the countdown slows, things will one day come to a head.
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