Two weeks before visiting the Middle East, US President Joe Biden received a reminder that this is an unpredictable region. In Israel, he will be greeted by political chaos and in Saudi Arabia, he will have to put on his best face as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, once a pariah in Washington, take center stage.
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The US administration should be credited for deciding to push through with Biden's visit to Israel despite the political upheaval, but we should admit that the circumstance will dull the occasion. Biden will undoubtedly reiterate the United States' strong commitment to Israel's security, and the need to resolve the Palestinian issue, but he will be careful not to come across as interfering in the election process. He won't make any promises nor will he flatter the government too much, and he will try to hide his well-known aversion to Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu.
Saudi Arabia will be to the focal point of the Mideast tour. While there, Biden will have to meet and deal with bin Salman, who until recently was the target of calls for sanctions by Washington. But the war in Ukraine has shuffled the deck and Biden is now forced to reconcile with the crown prince just so the latter will keep up the production of oil, the prices of which are soaring.
Moreover, while for a moment it seemed that Bin Salman's entanglement in the Jamal Khashoggi affair would hurt his chances of succeeding his father, Middle East politics have allowed the crown prince to mark achievements in Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, which he recently visited.
One can point to an inherent and continuous failure in the pattern of thinking of American presidents, especially from the Democratic camp, whereby tyrants can be "educated" to respect human rights. They only sober up when it is too late. The same is true of Biden, who has had to acknowledge the unfortunate fact that the price of oil is more important than human lives.
To dismiss criticism in Washington over the reconciliation with Bin Salman, Biden will try to extract from him not only increased oil production but also a promise to join the Sunni states that are normalizing their relations with Israel.
While the crown prince supports the process, he is slow and careful when it comes to it and he prefers back channels. He sends his aides to meet with senior Israeli officials but shies away from any public meetings. If he does grant any of Biden's requests on the matter, it will be in measured steps rather than with a dramatic announcement.
As for Iran, Biden's interlocutors in Israel and Saudi Arabia will meet a president eager to renew the nuclear deal.
Israel will be unable to prevent a deal, but it should take advantage of the visit to get a promise that any such agreement will tie Israel's hand if it turns out that the Iranians continue to lie about their progress toward a nuclear bomb.
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