Neither Iran nor Israel was an escalation right now.
With American troops withdrawing from Afghanistan, Iran surely wants to get rid of the US military presence in Syria and Iraq. too. and take its place. However, the Islamic republic must focus on rehabilitating its sanctioned economy and curbing nationwide protests.
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Its latest actions – attacking US military bases in the Middle East and targeting an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman – were not meant to challenge the West or Israel. It was an attempt to show the world who is in charge in the Middle East and improve its bargaining position in negotiations to renew the nuclear deal.
They are most likely related to the arrival of Iran's newly-sworn in President Ebrahim Raisi, the "butcher of Tehran," whose stance regarding the West is far more hawkish than that of his "moderate" predecessor Hassan Rouhani.
And yet, it is safe to assume that Iran is not interested in starting a conflict now. Neither is Israel, even though it understands that Hezbollah's latest rocket attacks on its northern border must be met with a firm hand.
With regards to Iran's attack on the Israeli-owned ship, the Pentagon said "all options are on the table" and the British military said that "Iran made a serious mistake attacking" it. Nevertheless, Israel cannot expect a strong retaliation from these superpowers due to the Western interest in renewing the nuclear agreement.
And yet, these statements reflect a much stronger Western response than ever before, which is a sign that if Israel were to step up its efforts against Iran, it would receive international backing.
The United States and Britain clearly understand that we are talking about an escalation, and this time they did not hesitate to blame Iran, contrary to ambiguous statements in previous conflicts, where both sides had to "exhibit restraint."
Therefore, now might be the right time for Israel to take advantage of the current situation to take out Hezbollah, even at the cost of extreme escalation on the northern border.
And even though Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned this week that the terrorist group was ready to retaliate against any further Israeli airstrikes, most likely his response will be limited due to nationwide demonstrations against the Iranian presence in Lebanon.
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