In the field of international relations, the term "zero-sum game" is a familiar one. It's a term from a world long past, a realistic world where "if you're not with me, you're against me," a world of winners and losers, where both sides cannot harbor some ambiguous sense of victory, and where objective truth supersedes bizarre notions such as "subjective truth."
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In today's world, awash in post-modernism, such terms have fallen by the wayside. And through the lens of "neo-realism," meanwhile, which is just a watered-down version of that bygone world, everything and anything can seem rosier. But there's the rub. Ultimately, and despite all the efforts to create a blurry picture, here, as we sit and watch the crisis between Russia and the United States unfold, it seems as if we've truly gone back in time.
This is apparently the world's return to balance moment, and the natural state of things. And everything that happened in the past 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet bloc was a passing episode, in which American hegemony failed to change the world and prevent it from reverting to this state of inter-superpower balance. We are now witnessing the "correction" in financial terms.
What do we have here, essentially? Two global powers, one from the East, the other from the West, and one continent – Europe – in the middle, which, it must be said, is still post-traumatic from the Second World War. In the eye of this storm, meanwhile, is Ukraine, a buffer state upon which the future hinges. But when analyzing Russian President Vladimir Putin's behavior over the past 15 years and his consistent strategic modus operandi – he wants to reestablish Russia's status as a global superpower and an equal counterweight to dissipating American hegemony. Truth be told, from his perspective, he's justified. Since the 1990s, one after another, the West has appropriated all the countries west of the Ural Mountains that once belonged to the Soviet bloc. And the Russian bear openly and declaratively feels the noose closing in.
Putin has acted decisively against insurrections and has sought to create a clear line beyond which the West cannot gain a foothold. Not in Abkhazia, not in Georgia, not in the Baltics, and not in the Crimean Peninsula. Russia will not let the West reach its doorstep. The Russian leader has also proven he isn't afraid of using force, and sure enough, when he has done so, those same buffer countries fell into his hands like a house of cards.
And now to Ukraine – for many months Putin has amassed his forces around this buffer country, essentially signaling to the West "up to here." This signal caught Washington at a bad time, and all the more so Europe. They are busy with their own problems, and war from their point of view is a hellish prospect with which they have no true desire to contend. In this context, Putin is nothing more than a nuisance. Yet while Putin is maintaining a consistent strategy, the West is wavering and irresolute.
Right now, Russian military divisions, capable of firepower we haven't seen in a very long time, are prepared for a ground operation in Ukraine's north and east. The Russians are trained and ready, and the methods Putin will employ are diverse – cyber, domestic subversion, fomenting chaos, and finally, yes, charging armored divisions.
Rest assured – you won't see a war of East versus West here. This war has already been decided – the West does not intend to spill blood for Ukraine. Even if we do see Russian tank columns moving against Ukraine's brittle defenses – a scenario that most likely won't materialize – the West doesn't actually have the appetite for, or the ability to provide a sufficient countermeasure.
This war was over before it even began. Putin won, and now just wants a formal surrender and a captivating victory image. Yes, this is the world of today, which in many respects is similar to the world of yesteryear, and is still a world where you don't mess with the Russian bear and a culture that eats geopolitical strategy for breakfast.
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