The decision by the Shura Council of the Islamic Movement's Southern Branch to freeze the Ra'am party's membership in the government and the Knesset proves once again that the Islamist party has no intention of leaving the coalition in the foreseeable future. Ra'am may have now offered proof it will be the last party to leave the current coalition even if it breaks up tomorrow morning.
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Although historic in terms of Israeli politics and parliamentary operations, the move led by the Islamist party leader Mansour Abbas remains a major gamble for both Ra'am as an Arab party and its Zionist partners in the government. The decision to join the coalition has so far been a dead-end for the party.
The Shura Council, a religious body tasked with handling religious issues for the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement, convened against the background of the clashes at Al-Aqsa Mosque, but more so against the background of the serious clashes that broke out between police forces and young people in Jerusalem. It is doubtful whether any of those young people voted for the Ra'am party in the last election as a majority of them are residents of east Jerusalem and are unlikely to vote ideologically in Knesset elections.
The declaration of a "freeze in coalition membership" is no more than a media sedative aimed at the Arab Israeli public. It sends the message that Ra'am is bringing down the government, and it follows the sharp criticism issued in recent weeks, in particular at the outset of the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, of Ra'am's silence in the face of what Arab society perceives as the "government's belligerent policy" and concerns of the use of police force in east Jerusalem.
In all likelihood, those who decided on a coalition and Knesset membership freeze are relying on the short-term memory of the Arab public and are no doubt counting on tensions to calm and for life to go back to normal in another two weeks, following the conclusion of Ramadan. Legally speaking, though, coalition and Knesset membership cannot be suspended. Whoever came up with this idea and coordinated on it with the Prime Minister's Office and that of Foreign Minister Yair Lapid could cause Ra'am to lose support. Some of the party's senior officials have already spoken out against remaining in the coalition.
It is during the Passover holiday, when the coalition is not functioning as there are no discussions in the Knesset, that there is no real significance to suspending membership in the Knesset, let alone the coalition.
Those looking to shock Israeli politics and genuinely threaten to topple the government and break up the coalition would behave differently. They would convene a press conference or send a letter of resignation that would go into effect in 48 hours. In the absence of a Knesset resignation, they would boycott discussions held in the Knesset plenum and by its various committees, just as the opposition was prone to do in recent months.
Abbas is still dedicated to his cause. He sees the steps he has taken as courageous and aimed at bringing about a different kind of politics. Still, he does not really have anything to lose as he will not run with the Ra'am party in the next Knesset regardless of when the Knesset dissolves. According to the Islamist party's charter, Raam's chairman and Knesset representatives can two serve a maximum of either two terms or eight years in office.
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