The plausible outcome by which Iran and the United States will reach a new nuclear agreement is a matter of great concern, and rightly so, among Israeli and US lawmakers, as well as for Gulf states' officials.
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This agreement is dangerous because it paves the way for Iran, in nine years, to secure the ability to produce a large arsenal of nuclear weapons without fear of having to cross a dangerous threshold, where it may be exposed to power moves that prevent it from doing so, and without the prospect of crippling economic sanctions.
The agreement does not guarantee IAEA supervision anywhere and anytime; it has sunset clauses; it fails to deal with ballistic missiles – the means by which nuclear bombs are launched; it does not oblige Iran to reveal the truth about the progress of the military dimension of its nuclear program ahead of finalizing the deal with world powers; and the restrictions it details are to be gradually lifted - some have already been removed and others are due to be lifted soon.
Reviving the nuclear deal at this time would be even more dangerous, as it takes place after Iran has already marked significant achievements in the field of enrichment technology, which according to the agreement were to take place only a few years from now, and in its weapons program.
This means that it is virtually impossible to return to the original nuclear agreement. Moreover, a significant portion of the restrictions placed on Iran are slated be removed anyway in early 2024 and early 2026.
Worse – all of this is taking place when it is clear that any hope that a new deal would lead to a change in Iran's subversive policies is baseless; and all while Iran still refuses to provide details on four facilities exposed due to the nuclear archives exposed by Israel.
All this amounts to dangerous irresponsibility, especially as Iran grows stronger. It is clear that the tens of billions of dollars that will be made available to Iran will be used to continue arming Iran's proxies and paying for Tehran's efforts to expand its influence in the region – as well as increase its ability to threaten Israel directly or through its offshoots. This cash infusion will also alleviate the severe economic crisis in Iran, thus dousing the any threat destabilizing regime.
Resuming an agreement under the current circumstances will be a huge boon for the extremist Islamic regime in Tehran, which it will undoubtedly present as evidence of its morality and the weakness of the West and Israel.
The US is aware of all these dangers and yet it is determined to advance the agreement, simply to delay the end and avoid the need for a confrontation with Iran.
First. The Biden administration tried to justify this policy by saying that reviving the deal would be the first step in negotiations with Iran that would lead to an improved accord, but this faint and illogical excuse has already been abandoned.
Israel's problem is that the US, which is showing a hesitant attitude towards Iran and in other contexts, is our most important ally. While efforts should be made to prevent negative repercussions on the Abrahamic Accords and to prepare for independently taking action to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state – such an undertaking will be much more difficult without American support.
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