The "gas protests" that erupted in Iran over the weekend intensified considerably on Sunday. According to unsubstantiated reports, demonstrations and riots have spread to over 100 cities across the country. Dozens have reportedly been killed, among them several state security personnel, and over 1,000 have been detained.
The protesters, mostly youngsters, took to the streets after gas prices were increased by 50% on Friday. They burned government offices, banks, police stations and public institutions and shut down main thoroughfares. Regime forces responded by opening fire, occasionally with bullets.
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As expected, regime spokesmen sought to downplay the severity and scope of the demonstrations. It was just a "few hooligans," backed by Tehran's enemies, the said, adding that the security services had detained the organizers, "who operated on behalf of foreign interests."
But the clearest evidence that the regime in Tehran is worried about losing control was its decision Sunday to block, almost completely, access to the internet, in an effort to prevent the dissemination of information and rumors and the use of social media platforms to coordinate the protests. Further indicative of the regime's growing concern was President Hassan Rouhani's request that supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly back the decision to raise gas prices.
Khamenei gave his backing, but in his own way. He expressed support for the price hike, but also mentioned that he isn't "an expert on the matter." If something goes awry, he can always transfer blame to Rouhani and the others behind the decision.
Although Iran is surviving for now, it is buckling under the weight of heavy economic sanctions imposed by the United States. Inflation has spiked to 40%, the rial's value is depreciating by the day, and the jobless rate is soaring as is the number of people going to work every day without getting paid. Economists believe the Iranian economy has shrunk nearly 10% this year while the forecast for the next year is even gloomier.
The decision to raise gas prices so dramatically was necessary due to the dire economic situation and the need to introduce austerity measures, which Rouhani has pushed. But the protesters also poured into the streets because they believe prices will be raised in other areas and because of their complete lack of faith in the government to actually use the money to help the country's poor, the regime's stated purpose for the measure.
Similar to the grassroots demonstrations that flared and were suppressed two years ago in Iran, the primary motive now is the economic situation and growing distress. This time, too, however, like then, protesters have also shouted political slogans, saying: "We don't want the Islamic republic," and "Down with the dictator (Khamenei)," and "stop spending state funds in other countries at the expense of the Iranian people."
The regime in Tehran has the means to suppress, by using considerable force, the current protest wave, similar to previous instances. It's possible, though, that this time it is even more determined to do so because of the fact that for the first time the protesters are gaining inspiration from the simultaneous protests in neighboring Iraq. The Revolutionary Guard and other Iranian security agencies must now invest resources into quelling the anti-ayatollah protest waves on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border. Even if they succeed this time, if nothing changes and stifling US sanctions aren't eased, the next eruption is just around the corner.
