Sometime in the middle of next month, the new American envoy charges with mediating an agreement between Israel and Lebanon about their ongoing maritime dispute, David Schenker, is scheduled to arrive in the region to help launch talks between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's visit to Washington last week sparked internecine tensions inside Lebanon, which raise a question about whether the talks between Israel and Lebanon will start at all.
According to the Lebanese media, Hariri promised the Americans that he would promote an agreement with Israel in exchange for military and economic aid to Lebanon. These reports cranked up the tension between Hariri and Hezbollah and their partner, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Hezbollah is afraid that Hariri wants to handle the issue personally, and want the matter to remain in Shiite hands. So Hezbollah made it clear that it had given Berri the authority to conduct negotiations on the maritime dispute, and that they saw him as the only one authorized to do so.
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The Shiite insistence on Berri as negotiator makes it less likely that negotiations will start, much less than any deal will be reached. While Hariri demonstrated flexibility while he was in Washington, Berri's is taking a harder stance. He, and Hezbollah – which backs him – have three conditions, which could hold things up. The first condition is that the American-mediated talks with Israel will address both the maritime and the land border disputes. Israel objects to that and wants to negotiate on the maritime border alone. The second condition is that the UN will be responsible for drawing the maritime border, as it did the land border in 2000. Israel would prefer to reach a bilateral agreement with Lebanon, with American oversight, because it believes a bilateral deal would have a better chance of staying in place. And finally, Lebanon is rejecting Israel's six-month deadline to wrap up the talks and reach an agreement.
The tension between Hariri and Berri on this issue is keeping things from progressing. US President Donald Trump has made it clear that he very much wants the matter to be concluded quickly, with a compromise. One possibility is for Israel and Lebanon to lay out an approximate maritime border and leave the other aspects of the dispute to be resolved at a later date. That would resemble what is taking place in the dispute over the Israel-Lebanese land border, on which Lebanon disputes 13 different points from Rosh Hanikra on the coast to Ghajar. Still, the "draft" border has been laid out and is being upheld by both sides.
American pressure is needed both to clarify to the Lebanese that it would be better for them to reach an agreement so they can produce natural gas that will provide income and help their limping economy and to ensure that Israel can continue producing its own natural gas in any case. In addition to US pressure, the Lebanese must demonstrate flexibility. Without that, there is little chance that any agreement about a maritime border will be reached.
