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Amnon Lord

Amnon Lord is a veteran journalist, film critic, writer, and editor.

The Iranians don't feel safe anywhere

It seems that there has never been a time with so much activity on the defensive front, especially vis-à-vis Syria and Iran. The question now is: who's next? What will happen ahead of the transition in Washington? Are the Iranians now saying to themselves: We survived Trump, we'll survive this, too?

 

The killing of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is a significant achievement in the overall campaign by Israel and the US against the Iranian nuclear project. The man had been wanted for years by the Mossad intelligence. His killing deals a blow to Iranian morale and capabilities.

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Fakhrizadeh headed the secret military project that was part of Iran's general project. Two years ago, at that press conference where the prime minister revealed the findings of the Iranian nuclear archive, he specifically named Fakhrizadeh. "Remember that name. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh," he said.

In recent weeks there have been analysts like Mark Dubowitz who predicted – and apparently knew what they were talking about  that following Trump's defeat, there will be an acceleration of moves against Iran. Maybe in an attempt to close gaps and do as much as possible before President-elect Joe Biden, who announced his intent to return to the nuclear agreement, enters the White House.

These kinds of operations that took place in Iran heighten the tension and narrow the room for flexibility for Biden and his people. It's hard to believe that this is the kind of operation that Prime Minister Netanyahu would inform Biden of ahead of time. It's also not something Biden would want to know, because it makes him in Iran's eyes look like a partner of Israel. According to the anonymous leaks of "senior US intelligence officials" to the New York Times, who pointed the finger at Israel as responsible for the killing, they're already lining up with Biden's administration. During the Obama days, the administration sabotaged the battle against Hezbollah and Iran with such revelations.

But Iran has already been exposed as being a host for al-Qaida, a terrorist organization fighting against the US for years. The recent killings show a certain method that Israel has apparently chosen to use. Is it more of the same kind that Israel did in bygone days, by the Mossad? No, because this is killing on the level of Qassem Soleimani's assassination. From what senior pundits said on TV over the weekend, one could think that Israel is not taking responsibility for the attack in northern Iran.

However, the sequence of events that took place since taking over the Iranian nuclear archives shows that Israel has a deep presence in the Iranian system. It can reach many places. The Iranians can't feel safe anywhere. These kinds of operations mean that Israel or the US will not use the method of aerial military bombings to destroy the nuclear capabilities to get it over and done with.

There's one more thing that can be learned from this operation. It concerns the internal politics in Israel. In this government, the most cumbersome in Israel's history, below all the noise there is a union between Netanyahu, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and his No. 2 Gabi Ashkenazi when it comes to military activity.  This is a daring operation with a high risk of enemy responses. A full-on flare-up is not on the menu.

Beyond the TV screens of the Berkovich's, the Barak's, and political inciters, there are many actions carried out that during normal times would make huge headlines. Moreover: there has never been a time with so much military defense activity, especially in Syria and Iran. The question now is: who's next? What will happen ahead of the transition in Washington? Are the Iranians now saying to themselves: We survived Trump, we'll survive this, too?

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