The Russian invasion of Ukraine poses dangers that could extend beyond the immediate battlefield, potentially changing the world security order for the worse.
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This is certainly the sense in every country that once comprised the former Soviet Union, and more broadly – the entire Soviet bloc. Although Putin is currently only focused on Ukraine, it's fair to wonder whether the West's exhibited weakness won't embolden him further. And Russia is not alone, of course; China, too – which on Thursday expressed its support for Russia – is watching closely, which could directly impact the future of Taiwan.
These are disconcerting developments, for Israel as well. Those who criticized Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday for supporting Ukraine were wrong for three reasons: First because Israel – which rose from the ashes of the Holocaust – must always position itself on the right side of history; second because it needs to stand alongside the United States and the West; and third because Putin has proven time and again that he is motivated solely by the Russian interest. His cooperation with Israel in Syria is predicated on his local interests there, which could quickly change. One only needs to see how Russia cooperates simultaneously with Iran on a number of issues, including the nuclear one, to understand that Russia is not a stable pillar, and certainly isn't an alternative to the United States.
Still, moving forward, we can assume that Israel will seek to remain as uninvolved as possible in this mess. The brunt of its energy will now focus on rescuing Israelis and Jews in Ukraine who want to leave. Many have already asked for help getting out. It's fair to ask why they ignored the numerous loud warnings in recent weeks to leave the country before the war began.
It's also reasonable to assume that most of the Jews and Israelis in Ukraine will want to stay. They are not the objective of the war: Russia wants Ukraine and is taking it with relative ease. The Ukrainian army has offered little resistance, and the Russian military's path to Kyiv – and beyond – appeared to be paved as of Thursday night. Not that this was ever in doubt; the gap between the two militaries is immense, and the moment the West declared it wouldn't intervene, the war was essentially won.
The lack of Western resolve is very troubling. US President Joe Biden in effect waved the white flag the moment he entered office, when he made it clear he wouldn't send American troops to foreign battlefields and then led the panicked US withdrawal from Afghanistan. American deterrence, ergo, was tremendously debilitated. As stated, we could now be witnessing the first symptoms of this malady, which could very well spread to Israel if Iran and its proxies sense they are free and safe to act.
The immediate lesson for Israel is obvious: It can only rely on itself. The lesson for the world is broader: Without resolve, the familiar global security order will crack. Although the Americans and Europeans have slapped heavy sanctions on Russia, it is too little too late, certainly for Ukraine. Whoever wants to live in a free world must remember – similar to the eve of the Second World War – sometimes the price for this must be paid in blood, sweat, and tears.
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