The main question that underpins the political crisis that emerged in the wake of the Sept. 17 elections has been who will blink first: Will it be Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who pledged to keep the 55-MK block comprising Likud, the national-religious parties and the ultra-Orthodox together no matter what, or Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who promised to pursue a unity government with the Likud but without Netanyahu.
Without one of them relenting, Israel will soon be heading for its third general elections, full-speed ahead.
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On Saturday night, it became clear that the one who plans to cave in was none other than Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, the man whose petty politics got us here in the first place.
In an interview with Channel 12 News, a hysterical Lieberman showed his hand, saying that to prevent a third run at the polls, he would be willing to share the government table with both the "ultra-Orthodox and Messianic" parties and the Joint Arab List, whose lawmakers he has often castigated an "the enemy within."
Lieberman's zigzagging has shuffled the deck as the fact he was suddenly willing to join anyone has shown them that maybe – just maybe – third elections are avoidable.
It seems chances are increasing that Lieberman would join Gantz, thus teaming with the Left and the Arab parties to form a minority government, but Yisrael Beytenu's leader has been known to surprise.
Lieberman's hatred for Netanyahu dictates he will team with anyone to oust the prime minister, but if he stopped to think about his political future, he may change his mind.
Supporting a minority government with the Joint Arab List could backfire spectacularly for Lieberman, but Gantz is not without his options.
Blue and White, Labor and Meretz together make up 44 mandates. If Lieberman joins the government, the coalition will number 52 seats. In this case, all it would take is for nine out of the Joint Arab List's 12 MKs to back the government for Gantz to secure his premiership and oust Netanyahu by the end of the month.
Another option for Gantz to secure Lieberman's support without partnering with him. This would create a 44-MK coalition that will have a broad safety net from Lieberman and the Joint Arab List, which may give help it survive for a few weeks or months until Netanyahu's legal situation is determined
Joining the right-wing bloc is, of course, much simpler for Lieberman, although it seems far away at the moment. If Lieberman returns to his natural home he could become a part of a 63-member coalition whose members know each other well, warts and all.
And if all that fails – third elections are always an option.
