The 20th Knesset was elected in March 2015 and was supposed to last longer than four and a half years – up until November 2019. But the election for the 21st Knesset was bumped up to April 2019. There is no doubt that one of the main reasons for the elections taking place earlier was Yisrael Beytenu's decision to leave the coalition.
That decision to withdraw reduced the coalition base of the 34th government down to just 61 Knesset members. It's worth noting that after the 2015 elections, a 61-member government was formed. The base of support in that government grew when Avigdor Lieberman replaced Moshe Ya'alon as defense minister, but it narrowed again when he pulled out.
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Comparative studies show that narrow governments – which still have a majority – tend to last longer. The problem with these governments isn't their stability but their day-to-day management. The dependency on the impulses of individual MKs is not easy to handle. But what was considered a nightmare scenario on the eve of the 20th Knesset's dissolution, is now the right-wing's goal.
After the election for the 21st Knesset in April 2019, and even more so after the election for the 22nd Knesset in September 2019, it became clear that Yisrael Beytenu is no longer part of the right-wing bloc. Lieberman, who in the past was a firm ally of Aryeh Deri, has become his arch-rival, and now everyone knows the real question is: Can the right-wing get "a majority of 61 without Lieberman" in the election for the 23rd Knesset.
It's not a new question. After election day in 2015 I had the chance to speak with a very senior Knesset member. The final results weren't in yet, and the senior politician summed it all up with one question: "Will there be a majority of 61 without Lieberman and with Kulanu?"
After a series of unprecedented, dramatic events, we have come back to the starting point set five years minus two weeks ago.
What will happen this time? In the scenario of a Knesset majority for the Likud and its three partners in the bloc, Benjamin Netanyahu will form the 35th government. This will happen despite an attempt to block him through appeals to the High Court of Justice. During the 18th Knesset, Netanyahu sought to rely on support from the center, and even from the left.
The situation today is completely different. All the polls during this campaign predicted difficulties for the right-wing bloc to form a government. The deviations between the final results and the polls may be minor, but politically they could amount to the exact opposite.
If Blue and White, Yisrael Beytenu, Labor-Gesher-Meretz and the Joint Arab List get a majority bloc, we'll need to answer questions similar to the ones we had back in April and September last year. Everything is possible: politicians switching sides, mutinies or dismissals inside either camp, a minority government, a unity government, or fourth elections. So it's not just the voters, it's also the whims of the leaders that will determine how this absurd show ends.
