Iran boasted on Thursday that it rescued dozens of sailors from one of the attacked oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, evacuating them to safe shores. The Iranian foreign minister called the attacks "alarming," and in Tehran officials tried hinting that only Israel has an interest in sparking a regional war.
We must ask, does it make sense that those who saved the sailors from their burning ship are the same people who set it ablaze? The answer, as strange as it sounds, is yes. Similar to a successful pyromaniac who then helps put the fire out. And although Iran isn't the only suspect in the two terrorist attacks in the Gulf of Oman, and in the four previous attacks last month, it is undeniably the prime suspect.
First and foremost, this is due to motive. The noose of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran is tightening. Iranian oil exports have plummeted from over one million barrels per day to less than 400,000. The Iranian economy is on the verge of collapse, and Tehran has already threatened on multiple occasions that if it can't export oil, "no one can."
Second, Iran is the main suspect because of the objective. Iranian oil tankers weren't hit on Thursday or last month, rather, lo and behold, tankers carrying materials from Saudi Arabia and Gulf emirates. The fact that some of the cargo was being shipped to Japan this time, and that the attack took place while the Japanese prime minister was visiting Tehran, doesn't need to trouble those who gave the order.
Third, we must consider the location. The attacks Thursday and last month were carried out in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Persian Gulf. In this maritime zone, near the Iranian coast, Revolutionary Guards naval units maintain a permanent and massive presence, and they can quickly engage and disengage from designated targets.
Finally, the fourth reason we can point to Iran is the message. While the country's spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, told Japan's prime minister on Thursday that he would not negotiate with US President Donald Trump over a new nuclear deal, Iran still hasn't completely shut the door to mediation efforts. Attacks of this sort are meant to prove that Iran isn't weak and vulnerable and that it "must be respected" if it does eventually choose to enter negotiations.
Iran is pushing the limits with the United States but is doing so cautiously. The two oil tanker attacks on Thursday and the four in May are evidence of Iran's considerable effort and quite impressive ability to conduct military operations in the Persian Gulf under the nose of the US Navy – almost completely without leaving a trace. The moment any proof is presented, however, escalation in the Gulf will be unavoidable.
The Iranians, meanwhile, did fail miserably in one aspect on Thursday. Their decision to hamper oil exports from the Persian Gulf was supposed to dramatically increase oil prices, which in turn would somewhat alleviate some of their economic distress. But, contrary to their expectations, the oil market didn't respond hysterically to the attacks and prices only increased marginally. The Saudis have already announced they will sell oil to anyone, and at a reasonable price.
