Anyone wondering what the news channels would be focusing on this summer got a clear answer to their question on Monday: Iran.
Iran's announcement it had crossed the 300-kilogram (660 pound) threshold of (low-level) uranium enrichment, intentionally violating the 2015 nuclear deal, made it clear that in many ways, we are seeing a return to the overt and covert race that was waged between Jerusalem and Tehran earlier on this decade.
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As was then the case, Israel has once again made it clear that Iran is the source of all evil in the region and the greatest threat to it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared additional proof that Iran has been lying about its nuclear program all along – saying it was soon to come. It is unclear what proof he is referring to: Will the evidence once again pertain to old material the likes of which was acquired from the archives in Tehran thanks to an operation that has won the Mossad the Israel Defense Prize? If this is the case, it is doubtful this material will have any impact on the world's approach to Iran. But should the material be up-to-date and testify to Iran having violated the 2015 nuclear deal, then that would serve to jolt the international system and allow Israel to demand Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China join the US in withdrawing from the accord.
Netanyahu has also repeated his declaration that Israel would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. While this is ostensibly a familiar assertion, with Iran now violating the agreement and deeply involved in terrorist acts in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, the timing could mean that, beyond an attempt to deter the Iranians, his remark was likely aimed primarily at Western ears: As was the case several years ago, Netanyahu again seeks to make it clear that those who want to avoid an Israeli attack, which could develop into a regional war, would be wise to act immediately to stop Iran.
Netanyahu's remarks cannot be seen in isolation from those of Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who in a rare public appearance at the Herzliya Conference on Monday, said Tehran was the source of all evil everywhere. Paradoxically, the global threat Cohen described has had one clear positive outcome: Faced with this common enemy, Israel and Sunni Arab states share common interests, which he said could lead them to reach a regional understanding and even a comprehensive peace.
Yet it is unlikely we should all be rushing to have our suits tailor-made for the event. The relations Cohen touched upon do indeed exist, Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz was, after all, in Abu Dhabi on Monday. But without a solution to the Palestinian issue in sight, these ties will likely remain "half-baked" for the foreseeable future. Israel can, however, take advantage of them for a variety of matters – from quiet alliances and understandings to the sale of technology, and mainly in order to enlist the Sunni world to more effectively pressure the West on the Iranian issue.
In the meantime, although its back is up against the wall, Iran has yet to bat an eye. Its behavior is defiant, and its statements continue to be hawkish in nature. On Monday, another member of Tehran's parliament warned the country would destroy Israel in 30 minutes if Iran were to come under US attack. While this is absolute rubbish in practical terms, it is a testament to the combative spirit prevalent in Tehran, which has also found expression in the recent statements made by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
It is highly unlikely that Lebanon or Iran for that matter are truly interested in war. It is more likely that they, like Israel, are looking to deter, though in the meantime they have done so without success.
According to reports in Syrian media outlets, the Israeli Air Force again struck a series of targets on Syrian soil on Sunday. Israel may not have admitted responsibility for the attacks, but the relatively large-scale attack appears to have been directed against Iran's ability to store and transfer the weapons it supplies to Hezbollah. And the more than 10 targets were situated in several Syrian military bases and installations under whose auspices Iran and Hezbollah operate.
On the surface, there is no connection between this attack, which has been attributed to Israel, and the broader Iranian issue. Strikes on targets are part of the multi-year campaign being systematically waged against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, in the meanwhile, with impressive success, is sending a constant signal to Tehran to cool its plans to expand its campaign to additional territories.
