Infiltrations and rocket launches from the Gaza Strip, tension on the northern border, long-range attacks – the region is bubbling over, with all sides sharpening their swords ahead of another round of violence.
This situation is the by-product of three central layers: the regional system, the political system, and the leaders who are now trying to situate themselves in the right spot.
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In recent months, we have been witness to processes of escalation in a number of arenas near Israel: international tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran nuclear issue, the southern front that is directly influenced by what is transpiring in the Persian Gulf, and the Palestinian front that continues to try and challenge Israel.
These processes are taking place at the same time as the Israel Defense Forces is increasing its readiness for a possible if limited confrontation in the south, or a possible large-scale confrontation with Lebanon and Syria in the north. On a regional level, the system is prepared for a possible confrontation in the Gulf, given the reports Israel has joined the effort to secure the strategic waterway, as seen in the aerial attacks in more distant arenas.
At a time when the Iranians are trying to deter the West, while at the same time indirectly warming up their emissaries, the outlook for a possible confrontation becomes clearer: Every arena with ties to the issue is in a process of escalation. We saw this with the infiltrations from Gaza, the processes underway in Syria, as well as from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's recent marks, which reminded us of the missile launched by the Lebanese terrorist group during the Second Lebanon War that struck an Israeli Navy ship.
All of the regional players see the IDF's preparations, and are responding to them, whether through statements or attempts at attacks on all fronts. We saw this in Gush Etzion as well as on the Temple Mount. In such a situation, a response from one side leads to a response from the other, and so on and so forth, with the trend being one of escalation in the foreseeable future.
We cannot disconnect these processes from the political situation in Israel, which is headed toward an election in the coming weeks. The political system is clearly influenced by the security situation, certainly when in recent decades, every transitional government that attempted to make military moves paid for their actions when the people removed them from power. The dilemma over whether to escalate or contain tensions is directly influenced by this situation, something that is also understood by the war mongers among us, who as a result, prefer to contain the tensions to the extent that they are able.
In the face of this instability, the situation is dictated by the ability of all the regional players to moderate or manage dialogue in open or covert diplomatic channels.
We must also keep in mind that next year, US President Donald Trump will also be running for re-election, something that will certainly have an influence on what transpires in the region.
