The assassination of Bahaa Abu al-Atta, above all else, showed that Israel's long arm can reach anyone planning terrorist attacks against it while putting the country's unique intelligence-operational capabilities on full display.
Israel's stated justification for assassinating al-Atta, at this particular time, is that he was in the midst of planning a large-scale terrorist attack against Israel and was actively trying to derail ceasefire understandings between Israel and Hamas. It appears that Israel, which has recently become rather bigheaded due to its successes in the so-called "war between wars" on its various fronts, is not pausing to examine the strategic ramifications of its actions. In al-Atta's case, his assassination was nothing more than a tactical-local move and certainly won't change the situation in Gaza in any fundamental way.
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The armed organizations in Gaza continue posing a military threat to Israel, and they can strike any time they feel it serves their interests. As the current situation persists and the terrorist organizations continue to become more potent, Israel will ultimately have to launch a broad and intensive military operation to strip Hamas and the other armed groups of their military capabilities. Unfortunately, however, this won't assure an alternative to Hamas' rule in Gaza, and Israel will struggle to forge a long-term reality of stability and calm.
Israel's targeted assassination achieved its objective at the outset of the campaign, after which it worked to quickly end the hostilities before the home front could sustain a significant blow. The decision to focus on Palestinian Islamic Jihad, rather than Hamas as the sovereign power in Gaza, can be viewed as a policy shift that essentially absolves Hamas from responsibility for preventing terrorist attacks from Gaza. Hamas exploited the opportunity and stood idly by as Israel arguably acted in its interests. It weakened PIJ and warned that if Hamas joins the fray the consequent damage to Gaza would be far more severe, thus providing Hamas with considerable room to maneuver.
Hamas and Israel's conduct exposes their overlapping interests, not just in weakening PIJ but also in laying the groundwork for a long-term ceasefire in exchange for significantly easing the Gaza blockade. In the immediate term, both sides want a swift end to the current round of fighting, in order to avoid any missteps that would obligate Hamas to join the fighting.
PIJ realizes it is currently alone and that the longer this fight drags on its isolation, and the damage it incurs as a result, will become more acute. Hence it is trying to embellish its "victory" by highlighting the scope and range of its rocket barrages and ability to paralyze half of Israel. With that, even if this round indeed ended Thursday morning, the IDF and home front must remain on high alert in case PIJ launches a surprise rocket and drone strike.
Looking ahead, we cannot ignore the deeper factors underlying these events. The population in Gaza is in despair over the ongoing humanitarian crisis, with no end in sight. It hasn't supported PIJ's "resistance" activities or Hamas' fence-sitting. In Gaza, similar to Israel, children are suffering from nightmares, and most people are just trying to survive. When this round of fighting ends, if it hasn't already, Israel must seize the opportunity to implement understandings with Hamas, which is currently more focused on an arrangement with Israel and the impending elections in the Palestinian Authority, and even rapprochement with it – than a military clash with Israel.
To come to an agreement with Hamas, Israel doesn't need a broad military campaign to bring it to its knees, because on most points – aside from the issue of returning the bodies of our soldiers and civilians in captivity – Hamas will never be more agreeable. Therefore, Israel now has an opportunity to translate its operational success into a better, more stable security reality.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel is the managing director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
