Israel and Hamas persisted in their efforts to secure wins on the battlefield on Wednesday. No one said it out loud, but both sides acted as if the referee could blow the whistle at any moment and stop the current round of fighting.
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After a difficult first day and a half, the picture became more balanced on Wednesday as Hamas struggled to maintain the same element of surprise it initially had when it fired missiles at Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The anti-tank missile that hit the IDF jeep on the Gaza border exacted a price from Israel, but it wasn't a surprise. As painful as it is, dead soldiers on the front lines are part of any war. The IDF will have to examine why the jeep was exposed despite the stringent safety protocols in place in the Gaza sector, and learn the appropriate lessons. But this wasn't a transformative event to alter the nature of the campaign.
Meanwhile, Israel has managed to slightly balance the picture. After sputtering out of the gate, it appears the intelligence-military machine is now firing on all cylinders and is producing results. Numerous rocket-launching cells and drones were hit, and mainly, Hamas' technological echelon was taken out.
This is an impressive intelligence coup for the Shin Bet, and a severe blow to the terrorist group's military industry and future armament plans. Metals can be easily replaced, people cannot. Some of those killed were fountains of unique knowledge and expertise; considering the fact that Gaza has been under siege and couldn't receive smuggled weapons, Hamas has had to manufacture everything by itself. Wiping out its entire echelon of technological experts (one of whom was the right-hand and close confidante of the group's military leader, Mohammed Deif), leaves Hamas with a giant, gaping hole that will take a very long time to fill.
At the same time, the air force pummeled the weapons factories themselves, belonging to both Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Here too, the damage is immense and cannot be rehabilitated in a day (and probably not even a year). Although the rocket fire hasn't been eliminated, essentially leaving Israeli civilians with the same sense of insecurity, the damage to Hamas is accumulative and long-term. Along with the numerous highrises that were hit and demolished, Gaza will be faced with considerable damage once the fighting stops, and will only get worse if it persists.
Israel's problem is that all these achievements cannot provide a win equal to Hamas' missile fire on Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Unlike Israel, Hamas can justify its casualties and damage to property as contributions in the "fight for Jerusalem," which was its excuse for instigating the campaign. On the other hand, it's harder for Israel to sell rationalization for what is happening in Gaza. If a monster has grown there (and it has), why wasn't it actively dealt with in advance? Moreover, why did Israel allow Hamas to dictate matters?
Consequently, Israel on Wednesday wavered on whether or not to proactively escalate the fighting. Officials in Jerusalem received several mediation offers for a ceasefire, among other reasons as a goodwill gesture to coincide with the end of Ramadan. Outwardly, Israel declined all the offers and the IDF was given the full green light to press on. Behind closed doors, however, the doubts were far more acute, and not just due to concerns of a military quagmire and the possibility that it could spill over into Judea and Samaria and continue to affect Israel's Arabs.
Another central concern stemmed from the negative public opinion, unprecedented in scope, toward Israel across the globe, and from the spike in positive sentiments for the Palestinians in general and Hamas in particular. Once the fighting ends, Israel will have to address this as well: Why is the national public relations apparatus not functioning properly, and how can it be that the start-up nation has the lower hand against a terrorist group that has run a successful worldwide campaign to boost its image?
At least domestically, public relations have improved. The political-security echelon has been more present and seems to have recovered from its initial shock. Israeli leaders would do well to focus these efforts internationally. This is needed to balance the perceptional damage on the international stage, but also to lay the groundwork for the campaign to come after the fighting ends over lifting the blockade on Gaza and perhaps matters pertaining to Jerusalem as well. This aspect is critical, even more so as Israel braces for the expected investigation by the International Criminal Court at The Hague.
These considerations were included in the situational assessment briefing to the cabinet before the decision to escalate the fighting or end it. It is a complicated dilemma. In a nutshell, the benefits of expanding the military campaign are amplifying the damage to Hamas' military machine, and perhaps even acquiring a victory image in the form of assassinating one of its leaders. However, this means running the risk of more casualties (on both sides) that could lead Hamas to dog in its heels and require Israel to launch a ground operation it doesn't want.
The IDF's recommendation to the cabinet was not to stop, not right now. The army wants to exploit the opportunity to expand the physical damage to Hamas. The more the achievements accumulate, a senior official said, the darker the day after will be from the perspective of Hamas, which will have to "think 100 times" before provoking another round of fighting.
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