Moscow has been acting of late to change the rules of the game and limit Israeli strikes inside Syria on territory controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, a senior official with close ties to the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed to Israel Hayom.
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According to the source, a decision was reached on the matter ahead of the swearing-in of Israel's new government a few weeks ago. Although the details and timetable for the move have yet to be finalized, the official said the move had already been implemented. Unless Moscow moves to reverse the move, Russia may complete the policy shift in another two months, setting out a formal framework for delineating what is and is not permitted inside Syria moving forward.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Israel has operated inside Syria, in particular against Iranian and pro-Iranian militias working to establish themselves and set up military infrastructure with the potential to threaten Israel. Despite the shift that occurred when the Russian military entered the equation in support of Assad in 2015, Israel continued to carry out airstrikes thanks to understandings reached between then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among the understandings reached and acknowledged by officials in both countries was the creation of a mechanism to prevent IDF forces from clashing with the Russian military and coordination aimed largely at preventing any opportunity for military friction.
One can assume additional understandings were charted in addition to the overt agreement aimed at maintaining Israel's freedom of action in Syria. Netanyahu presented Putin with intelligence information on the Iranians effort to establish themselves in Syria and succeeded in convincing his Russian colleague that Iran's objectives were counter to Russian interests. Israel made clear to the Russians Jerusalem did not intend to intervene on behalf of either side in the Syrian conflict, thereby allaying their concerns Israeli activity in the country would harm Assad. The Russians understood Netanyahu's message that the establishment of a terrorist front against Israel in Syria could undermine the Russians' achievements in Syria full well.
The Russians have at times expressed disapproval of Israel's actions in Syria, and as far as we know, have not taken any steps that could put IDF forces at risk until late. With a new president in the White House and a new prime minister in Israel, we are liable to witness a significant change in Russian policy.
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