Outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi received a nice gift for ending his post: an increase in public trust in the IDF, as reflected by the annual report published by the Israel Democracy Institute.
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This data is important for three reasons. First, this shows a change in trend, after the decline in public confidence last year. Second, the IDF still enjoys a unique status in Israeli society, reflected in a much higher level of public trust than any other governmental or public institution in Israel. And third, because of the fear that the deepening political polarization may also affect the IDF, surely in light of the public criticism on a whole host of issues related to the military – from generals getting involved in politics to budgetary pensions.
But together with this good news, there is also bad news that will have to be addressed by incoming Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi. The main issue (judging by the public sentiment over the last few weeks) is not even a preview of what is waiting for Halevi. This ranges from ministers' attempts to take powers from the IDF – such as removing the Rabbinate and Civil Administration from the responsibility of the security forces – through attempts to influence operational issues such as rules of engagement and the integration of women in the army, to attempts to influence issues of moral values, primarily closing the IDF to certain parties and even demanding to change the army's code of conduct.
A Complicated Position
The position of chief of staff is inherently one of the most complicated roles in Israel, second in importance only to the prime minister. But it seems that since the end of the era of the great wars, no chief of staff has entered under such complex conditions as Halevi.
Part of this situation stems from the theaters in play, mainly Iran. In light of the nuclear project, Halevi will be required to complete preparations for a possible Israeli attack. At the same time, the war between the wars in the northern arena will continue, with the goal being to reduce Hezbollah and Shiite militias' strength in Syria as much as possible, and to curb any Iranian effort to circulate ammunition and terrorism in the region and throughout the world.
To date, Israel has the upper hand in the war against Iran, but it is a never-ending competition, with many and changing facades in which cyber is becoming more of a major player than ever before, and is required to constantly polish its operations to make sure it remains so in the future. In other areas, Halevi will be forced mainly to maintain stability, and his success will be in the absence of escalation and war. This is true of course in the north against Hezbollah, but also in Gaza, and especially in Judea and Samaria.
In February this issue will close a year of terrorism, the end of which is not in sight, and with a month of Ramadan which seems will be as explosive as ever. There is a high probability that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' regime is going to end and we will see struggles for succession, which could threaten the stability of the PA and rip it apart from within. This occurrence may, directly and indirectly, threaten Israel's security situation.
Halevi is well aware of all these challenges. He commanded a brigade in Judea and Samaria, a division on the Lebanese border, and the Southern Command (and was also the head of the Intelligence Directorate in the IDF). He intends to introduce changes to the operational plans and intensify investments in the ground army, in order to improve the IDF's readiness for the military campaign, and even before that – to deter the other side from it.
On the Home Front
But Halevi also knows that the main challenge he is expected to deal with is not against his enemies, but rather against those on his side: on the home front. As mentioned above, the political-social crisis is literally on the doorstep of the army. Its potential ramifications are far-fetching: from a decrease in the rate of new recruits and motivation to serve in the IDF, to the increasing difficulty of signing outstanding officers for permanent service (among others, because of service conditions that do not meet the current employment situation in Israel).
In addition to all of this, we can include the attempt of certain politicians to lock horns with the IDF and its commanders and change them from military commanders into officials – a dangerous situation that Halevi must curb, along with other populist suggestions, such as granting soldiers full immunity from investigation and prosecution.
Halevi is not known to be a vegetarian, unlike his predecessor. Metaphors aside, he will indeed choose his battles, but he will not cut corners nor will he bend, certainly not in matters of command and values. This promises him (and us) a stormy period, but we should all remember: Israel has one army, and one chief of staff and the price of eroding public support and trust in them may be substantially weighty.
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