The last few months have had the Middle East undergo major tactical shifts with new alliances emerging. This development could change the balance of power in the region. It is not yet "a new Middle East," but Israel is following the political developments closely.
Currently, China and Iran are increasingly involved, contrary to the United States, which directs efforts and resources toward the war in Ukraine, having left behind a vacuum in the Middle East that other countries are eager to fill.
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On March 10, Saudi Arabia and Iran renewed ties by signing an agreement mediated by China, which has economic interests in the region, and mainly out of a Saudi desire for Iran's moves to curb the civil war in Yemen.
Last week, Syria's Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad visited Saudi Arabia following a lengthy boycott of the country due to the civil war. The trip marked Syria's return to the bosom of Arab nations. At the same time, Tunisia and Syria reinstated each other's ambassadors.
Elsewhere in the Persian Gulf, Iran appointed an ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, after years of tensions. In addition, Qatar and Bahrain announced the renewal of diplomatic ties. The past week brought changes that occurred even closer to home. According to reports, after a decade of no ties, Saudi Arabia hosted the leaders of the Hamas terror organization Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal.
If we look at it from "a broader historical perspective, this is a new era in which the wheel of the Arab Spring has stopped," Assaf Orion, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Israel Hayom.
"Syria has had a civil war since 2010, Iran has filled many vacuums created in the region, and the monarchies surrounding it turned against it. But now we are seeing a kind of realignment, the main reason for which is the fact that the US is focusing on other parts of the world and is, therefore, less invested in the Middle East. Moreover, the US willingness to use forces has decreased since the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia in 2019."
According to Orion, the perception in the Middle East is that US determination is decreasing, which means that countries in the region need to fend for themselves either by reducing the threat from Iran by boosting ties and encouraging calm – such as the Saudi-Iran deal – or diversifying their dependence on superpowers, as several countries in the region are doing.
"China has not offered any security guarantees like the US did and works with its favorite tool – the economic tool – and with it, it promotes its political goals," Orion said.
The US, however, has not abandoned the region. The fact is, Saudi Arabia maintains ties with China while also asking the US for security guarantees, and procuring planes from Boeing, an American company, for tens of billions of dollars.
"What we see in the region is a kind of diversification of dependence, multiple connections, suppliers, and dialogues, rather than choosing one side," Orion said.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry closely monitors the developments in the region. "Everyone talks to everyone," one official said. "If five years ago it was clear who was on whose side, in recent years there has been a tendency to talk."
Israel too has contributed greatly to changing the Middle East with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Jerusalem too "talks to everyone," such as with Abu Dhabi officially and many other nations unofficially in an attempt to expand the pact. The recent warming of ties between Israel and Turkey, following a lengthy period with downgraded ties, is also reshaping the power map.
China's entry onto the scene as an economic power impacts Israel both due to the fact that the US is less involved in the Middle East, which weakens Jerusalem standing, and because Washington considers Beijing its number one enemy.
The most significant threat, however, that Isreal is facing comes from Iran, especially as efforts to isolate it economically are growing weaker. The nuclear deal has not been revived, but no significant sanctions have been imposed on the regime either, and Tehran is turning into a significant player in the region that other countries seek to be close with to reduce the risk it poses to them.
"Iran has a lot of self-confidence, it feels that the isolation is over. The country is very active in Iraq, Syria, and vis-à-vis Turkey. It may even succeed in calming the war in Yemen," Orion said but stressed that Iran and Saudi Arabia are not friendly nations, but rather "there is simply benefit in restoring ties between the nations at this stage."
At the security level, Israel took the position of the axis of resistance, which includes Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, which is linked to the Palestinian arena – from the planning and execution of the Megiddo attack to the firing of dozens of missiles into Israel from Lebanese territory.
According to Orion, the fact that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is taking more liberties shows that Israel's image of strength is weakened, which affects security and the desire of other Middle Eastern nations to expand ties with us.
Israel is perceived as weaker due to the internal crisis – over the judicial reform – and the weakness of the government, as perceived externally, both of which have led to increased attempts to act against the country precisely at this time.
"The measure of Israel's value in the Abraham Accords is built on the understanding that it can contribute, which includes a willingness to use force and political power, and this includes strategic relations with the US," Orian said. "These two things have been weakening recently.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been invited to Washington, and his visit to the UAE was canceled following [national Security Minister Itamar] Ben Gvir's ascent to the Temple Mount. This does not close the door and it is not the end of the story, but this is the picture of the situation at the moment."
Another political official described the situation differently, saying that the security policy developments are "a product of great Iranian frustration after they established proxies in the region and brought in most of the Hamas budget, and this still does not deter Israel from attacking it in any arena where it is relevant.
"Israel thwarts most of the activities designed to tire and sabotage it, and this becomes a classic sign of the cumulative Arab weakness," he said.
Moreover, Israel does not simply stand to the side, even if US backing has decreased. Jerusalem has established embassies in countries surrounding Iran, such as Azerbaijan, Bahrain, the UAE, and most recently, Turkmenistan.
Like the economic interests vis-a-vis China, Israel works in the same way to deepen ties with the countries with which it already established relations in the past. Economic projects that are being promoted with the US, India, and the United Arab Emirates, and of course – the expected annual gathering in Morocco of the Negev Forum in May, following the summit held last year in Sde Boker.
Such work on behalf of Israel prompts Iran to respond the same and recruit allies in the region, officials in Jerusalem say, and this is the reason for their contacts with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.
As for Israel and Saudi Arabia, there is no indication of a breakthrough in the normalization efforts, partly due to the makeup of the new Israeli government. The Israeli Foreign Ministry, however, says that the option is not off the table.
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