The famous Mossad motto should also apply to diplomatic affairs: Act wisely and use clever tactics. This seems to explain the current shift of the campaign in Gaza to the next phase. A hint of this was provided last night at a Likud faction meeting by the prime minister when he said: "We need international maneuvering room and we are working to keep it intact."
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What does that mean? The Israeli announcements about "moving to the next phase" were made just before Secretary of State Antony Blinken was to arrive in Israel. At the same time, President Biden announced that he was "quietly working with the Israeli government to get them to reduce and significantly get out of Gaza." The administration's Deputy Special Envoy Abram Paley also made it clear that the US was not looking for a confrontation with Iran – perhaps the worst thing you can say if you want to deter Iran. Blinken – considered the harshest critic towards Israel compared to other Biden officials – begins his tour against this backdrop of US softness. With Biden focused on his reelection bid and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hospitalized, Blinken is the one left available to deal with us. It is what it is.
Video: The Hamas attack on Zikim Beach on Oct. 7, 2023 / Credit: Usage under Israeli Intellectual Property Law, Section 27a
In order to preempt Blinken's pressures regarding the war, Israel therefore announced that it had begun the next phase so that the War Cabinet could tell him, "Mr. Secretary, we have already scaled back operations in Gaza, so your demands can only go so far – now it's your turn to give us something."
Israel wants American backing for the inevitable flare-up in the north – a campaign the administration has been determined to prevent. Israel may need an American veto in the Security Council against a future ruling by the International Court of Justice.
Reducing military pressure in part of the Strip creates better conditions for a hostage deal, if Israel moves, as planned three months ago, to a new phase of the war, which will serve the IDF well.
It's not perfect, and the barrage on Central Israel on Monday night illustrates the risk of the new operational stages: Hamas could regroup in any area that is evacuated, and of course, there is a risk to the soldiers who are still in the strip. Netanyahu and Gantz's promises to continue the war for months, and the supposed consideration from the US – if it is granted – may explain the rationale behind Israel's moves: Throwing a diplomatic bone for the US so that Israel could get back a lot of military freedom in return.
After all, 2024 is an election year in the US, and Blinken also understands that if Israel screams "gevald," his party will suffer at the ballot box.
