The Iranian attack on targets in Israel was thwarted almost completely overnight between Saturday and Sunday, and in the process, a US-led defense coalition was formed, creating, even if only for a few hours, a united front with Israel against the ayatollah regime.
Based on the assumption that defense alone would not suffice against such a powerful attack on Israel by Iran, hours before the attack, the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet convened and authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Minister Benny Gantz to make decisions exclusively regarding Israel's next steps against Iran.
The central question – the timing
The decision passed despite the opposition of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who announced in the room that he refused to transfer the weight of the decision solely to the hands of those three.
On Sunday, the War Cabinet and the chosen trio already convened for a meeting that lasted many hours, during which the next steps were discussed: whether there would be a response, and in what format. The central question – what timing would be chosen if such a decision is made.
The tension on the Iranian side, which is already showing its signs in the public and weakening the regime, actually serves Israel, according to sources involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, Israel should not rush into a response. While throughout the day, senior ministers in the 64-seat Coalition were heard demanding a harsh response against the Iranian attack, along with Likud ministers, Gantz and Gallant made different statements in favor of the alliance with the US, which, for political reasons, demands avoiding regional escalation.
Gantz noted that a response would come at the time and place Israel decides, but cited previous goals: the return of the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and the return of the evacuated residents of the north and south to their homes.
Evading responsibility
Netanyahu, whose voice has yet to be heard after the attack, sees such a defense alliance with the US as a goal he has been pushing to advance in recent years within the framework of the Abraham Accords.
The prevailing view is that even if such action is decided upon, it will be preserved for the element of surprise and the continued extraction of a psychological price from the ayatollah regime, but it will be carried out in coordination with the US and not at the cost of the alliance with it.
In addition, Israel will soon need to address the same goals Gantz mentioned – the return of the hostages, Rafah, and of course, the northern border. Israel may demand, in return for that delayed action, the missing American support for completing the operations to ensure its security vis-à-vis Gaza and Hezbollah.
In the first step, the US will be required to exert its full weight on the deal-rejecting Hamas, which demands complete surrender from Israel in exchange for returning the hostages it holds, including civilians, among them women and children.
However, apart from the power held by the three at the decision-making junction, considerable power also rests in the hands of Smotrich, head of the Religious Zionist Party, who made it clear in the Cabinet that convened on Saturday night that he would not blindly approve a decision of not responding to the Iranian attack.
How credible is this threat? Smotrich could topple the 64-seat Coalition the moment he understands that this concept is being perpetuated – containing the threat to Israel from Iran and creating a new equation whereby every assassination of an Iranian official will be met with a direct missile barrage on Israeli soil. Giden Saaar fled from responsibility without the authority after claiming that decisions are being made without him. Smotrich could bring down the government without allowing Netanyahu an alternative Coalition, as long as Israel's future as a sovereign, life-seeking state hangs in the balance.
