As the Israel Defense Forces approaches the final stages of its major ground operations against Hamas in Rafah, Hezbollah is ramping up its threats in an attempt to deter Israel from launching a large-scale military action in Lebanon. In his recent speech, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah pulled no punches. He hinted at the possibility of the terrorist organization attacking Cyprus, boasted of a force of 100,000 fighters, and insisted that the elite Radwan unit is still capable of invading the Galilee.
To justify potential military action against Cyprus, Nasrallah claimed that if Israel were to use bases or airports on the island nation, Hezbollah would attack it. While Cypriot officials denied such cooperation, the message seemed directed at the entire Western world: Hezbollah is prepared to turn the war with Israel into a regional conflict. This appears to be a response to US envoy Amos Hochstein, who warned the Lebanese of escalation if they don't progress towards a settlement.
Nasrallah may be hoping that the US and European Union will exert diplomatic pressure on Jerusalem, but in any case, he has only served to remind the world of the threat his organization poses to many countries. One need only mention Hezbollah's drug trafficking operations stretching from the Middle East to South America to fund its activities. As such, it seems the US might actually support a measured expansion of the offensive. From Israel's perspective, the goal on the northern front is crystal clear – pushing Hezbollah and its capabilities away from the border to allow residents to safely return to their homes.
The Lebanese are afraid
On the surface, all of Israel's options seem poor: While Hezbollah has withdrawn to about 8 kilometers (3 miles) from the border, its members could return one day without more significant action; Lebanon has been run by a caretaker government for the past two years, which, without a sitting president, will struggle to reach a diplomatic settlement; Israel cannot afford to rely on the Lebanese army or an international force to ensure its citizens' security; and finally, an all-out war carries many risks that the security cabinet must carefully consider. One can only hope that more experienced voices will prevail regarding the nature of the operation.
Nevertheless, it's doubtful that Israel will have a better time to change the situation fundamentally in the north. The IDF could take advantage of the international window of opportunity to destroy Hezbollah's strategic assets. As revealed in 2020, Hezbollah maintains precision missile parts production sites in neighborhoods in the heart of Beirut. A central part of the air defense system is located in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon. The infrastructure of the drone unit was attacked this week in the Tyre area. And in the south of the country, the organization has built an enormous tunnel network that facilitates the movement of its fighters. This labarynth was also intended to hide hostages in the event of an invasion into Israeli territory. However, Hezbollah lost the element of surprise on October 7. An attempt by the Radwan force to raid is unlikely to end in success, to put it mildly. In fact, in the nine months since the war began, Nasrallah has discovered that he has been infiltrated by intelligence far beyond what he expected. If Israel has the ability to eliminate a division commander sitting in a house in the Tyre area, it serves as a warning light for the entire command and leadership echelon of Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah lost the element of surprise on October 7. An attempt by the Radwan force to raid is unlikely to end in success, to put it mildly. In fact, in the nine months since the war began, Nasrallah has discovered that he has been infiltrated by intelligence far beyond what he expected. If Israel has the ability to eliminate a division commander sitting in a house in the Tyre area, it serves as a warning light for the entire command and leadership echelon of Hezbollah.
Just this past week, a regional operations commander in the organization was killed while driving his car in one of the villages in the Tyre area. It's no coincidence that Arab sources reported that Hezbollah has issued guidelines prohibiting the use of cell phones. More than 430 of the organization's fighters, equivalent to half a battalion, have already been eliminated.
Beyond that, many Lebanese fear war and watch helplessly as a radical Islamist organization drags them to the brink of Gaza-like destruction, without being able to do anything about it. One after another, they lament that Lebanon has been hijacked by Nasrallah, and anger towards him will grow in the event of a wider confrontation that significantly harms him.
A decision needs to be made
"With all the rockets Hezbollah has, its capabilities are limited," Lebanese MP Riad Yazbeq told Arab media. "It has the ability to cause casualties and damage on the Israeli side, but it cannot change reality. Israel is a country that receives support from the United States. It's a powerful country economically, militarily, and technologically, that can return Lebanon to the Stone Age."
In this context, Dr. Dan Naor, a Lebanon researcher and lecturer at Ariel University, believes that Hezbollah "does care about Lebanese public opinion, and that's also the reason it hasn't escalated to an all-out war. I think Hezbollah is attentive and maintains rules of engagement because most of the public in Lebanon doesn't want war. It needs to maneuver between Iranian needs and Lebanese needs, and the Shiite community is paying the price, with many having to leave southern Lebanon."
With the completion of the main maneuver in Rafah and the diversion of most military resources to the north, Israel faces a fateful decision regarding Hezbollah. Along with continuing to eradicate Hamas in Gaza and pursuing a hostage deal, difficult years lie ahead. In these times, we need internal unity, patience, and righteousness. Through these, we can prove to our enemies that we are here to stay.
