The race to free 98 Israelis held captive by Hamas in Gaza has taken an unexpected turn, becoming a political showdown between outgoing President Joe Biden and his successor, Donald Trump. As the US government deepens its involvement in negotiations, the complex dynamics of American influence in the Middle East are coming into sharp focus.
"To use a soccer analogy – Biden cooked, Trump scores," explains Rotem Oreg, director of LIBRAEL and an expert on American politics, in an interview with Makor Rishon. "It's essentially the same deal Biden proposed months ago, possibly even less favorable for Israel. But Trump managed to bring it to fruition."
Oreg's analysis challenges assumptions about the incoming president's relationship with Israel. "Biden was cautious, applying pressure while preserving Israel's dignity," he notes. "Trump is unpredictable – he could flip on us in a second."
The stakes are high for both leaders. After 16 months of war, securing the release of the hostages could be a defining moment. "Trump sees an opportunity to make history before even taking office," Oreg emphasizes. "He wants to enter the White House with this war behind him, declaring victory where Biden couldn't deliver."
However, the analyst is skeptical about the real impact of US pressure on Hamas. "I'm not convinced the US has any special leverage, regardless of who's president," Oreg states. He questions the effectiveness of Trump's public threats, arguing that Hamas remains largely unmoved by American rhetoric or potential actions.
Paradoxically, Oreg suggests that Trump's influence may be stronger on Israel than on Hamas. "Israel also bent in this deal," he observes. "There's a fear of disappointing Trump or appearing to interfere with the new administration." This dynamic raises concerns about the evolving US-Israel relationship.
Oreg describes this alliance as uniquely "three-legged," built on shared interests, values, and political benefits. "All three pillars are eroding," he warns. "We have reason to be worried, but nothing is lost yet."
Looking ahead, much depends on Trump's priorities. "The Middle East isn't likely his top concern," Oreg predicts. "If he sees political capital to be gained, he'll invest. If not, he might disengage like his predecessors."
As negotiations continue, the world watches to see which president will ultimately claim credit for bringing the hostages home – and at what cost to the delicate balance of power in the region.
